Stat of the Day, 12th August 2013
Full marks to those of you who spotted my lazy error yesterday, as Chris Catlin actually rode twice for Rae Guest at Windsor. Both were ultimately beaten, although our selection did manage to fill the runner-up berth at 3/1, jut over a length behind the winning favourite.
Monday heralds the start of a new week, so let’s crack on and look at the…
Where I advise you to take the 6/4 on offer about Regal Silk whilst you still can!
I accept that 6/4 is a little bit shorter than I usually punt at for SotD, but I feel this one may well go off at evens or even shorter than that, so there’s still the possibility of some decent value, but there is enough to suggest we’ll be collecting later.
Regal Silk is a 3yr old bay filly, making just her fifth start today (2271 in maidens) and her handicap debut for trainer Jeremy Noseda.
As tends to be the case, the Noseda horses are going well at present with six winners and eight others placed from just thirty in the last four weeks, earning his followers 19.2pts (+64% ROI) at SP in the process. This is no fluke, as the months of July & August have seen the yard have a career strike rate of over 20.6% from all runners. For the period 2011/13, that figure is up to 23.9% (42 winners from 176) for profits of 46.3pts (+26.3% ROI).
If, as we have today, we have a Noseda-trained runner priced below 4/1 in a handicap at this time of year, the record is 14 wins from 46 (30.43% S/R) for 11.5pts (+25% ROI) profit.
Mr Noseda’s horses also tend to go well here at Windsor with 13 winners from 38 in the same 2011/13 timeframe and this 34.2% strike rate has yielded a return of some 14.63pts, or 38.5% of stakes invested. With Windsor runners priced below 5/2, those stats become 8 winners from 13 (61.54%) for 8.83pts (+67.9% ROI).
Regal Silk makes her handicap debut today, after some good displays in maiden contests, the latest of which was her first ever win, coming over today’s course and distance three weeks ago. She was ridden by Ryan Moore that day and he resumes duties here once again this evening.
As well as having good form a this time of year and a great record here at Windsor, Jeremy Noseda is also a dab hand at getting horses to win on their handicap debut, as figures of 11 winners from 48 (22.9%) in the last three seasons will testify. Thos eleven winners have helped generate level stakes profits of almost 28pts (+58.25% ROI). With horses making their handicap debut for the yard and priced below 4/1, the strike rate is near enough 30%.
All of which gives me enough faith to place my 1pt win bet on Regal Silk at 6/4 with Paddy Power. This price is still dropping, but remains available in a few places, so please…