Carlisle Placepot Picks, 13th August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

So it was a winning placepot yesterday if you follow A’s only, the 24 units returning 2 x £23.40 (or your share thereof). Ticket builder players like me were left with a loss, despite collecting on two tickets, such is the way when so many fancied runners hit the board.

The greatest asset of the placepot in my opinion is that you can be so wrong – as I was yesterday with both Baytown Kestrel and Excellent Jem – and yet still catch a winning wager. 🙂

To today, and a trip up to Carlisle, where the first race looks a bit more open than the betting might suggest…

2.15 – Leg 1: It’s a two year old maiden, where the favourite, Omaha Gold, is shorter than 2/1 and a has a ‘2’ for her sole run to date. She’s sure to take plenty of placepot support after a 3/4 length defeat at Beverley on debut, but she was smartly away there and had the best draw in one on that notoriously biased sprint track. She again has a fair draw, but she’ll be overbet on the ‘pot.

Against her are a number with chances. Blue Bounty drops back to six furlongs after seemingly not staying over Chester’s seven last time. He was also drawn quite wide there and used a lot of energy early to get across. All things considered that was a good run and probably an improvement on a debut second behind subsequent Listed winner, Miracle of Medinah. He’s a danger here.

Beltor has been running well enough at massive prices, and has also been screaming for this step up in trip, being a son of Derby winner, Authorized. He too can run well. Nowinaminute is another that could take more money in the market than she ought to, given that ‘3’ next to her name. That was in a Class 6 claimer and she seemed sharp enough for her debut.

Newcomer Lexington Abbey has been well supported and is of more interest than Nowinaminute and Omaha Gold. And one at a price that could run all right is Neuf Des Coeurs. Very slowly away on debut, she ran on pretty well in a fair Windsor maiden. The extra furlong and the benefit of experience could see her outrun 16/1 odds if she breaks more alertly.

A – 1 (Beltor), 4 (Lexington Abbey)
B – 2 (Blue Bounty), 8 (Neuf Des Coeurs)

2.45 – Leg 2: A big field handicap with a lop-sided book headed up by Natures Law, clear-cut winner of a maiden on her second start last time. That was 103 days ago however, and she’s likely to have had an issue or two since then to justify the layoff. In such a bad race, she has to make the ticket, and I’ll chance her alone on A with some support on B. That support will come from old stagers, Captain Royale and China Excels and younger buck, Blue Shoes.

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Cheyenne Red may run better than a 66/1 shot. And he may not…

A – 8 (Natures Law)
B – 4 (Captain Royale), 5 (Blue Shoes), 7 (China Excels)

3.15 – Leg  3: We’ve discharged a fair amount of firepower already with two lots of B’s in the opening two legs, so it’s belt-tightening time. A seven runner nursery isn’t an obvious place to embark on such a placepot diet, but with a hat-trick-seeking Prescott horse in the mix we might just get away with it.

Threetimesalady has won twice for Rosie Jessop and is bidding to make it three times for the lady here. The drop back in trip ought not to be too much of a hindrance, and she’s obviously progressing. I’ll lob in Soul Instinct – very well backed already – to give us a second shout.

A – 1 (Threetimesalady), 3 (Soul Instinct)

3.45 – Leg 4: A messy claimer, and one where Toto Skyllachy has a very good chance to get back on the winning trail. He’s got a proper jockey back on board today, and has been running competitively in much higher grade this season (including at Royal Ascot!), and he’s the best part of a stone and more ‘well in’ with these. I’m banking on him. Gulp.

A – 2 (Toto Skyllachy)

4.15 – Leg 5: Save The Bees is fit and in winning form, going for a triple here. The ground might be quick enough but he’s hard to overlook, so I won’t. Euston Square gets a stone from that one and has been peppering the target of late without getting his head out front. He’s decent placepot fodder today.

Wyldfire is relatively lightly raced and has been consistent at around today’s trip, to which he drops back this afternoon. There have been bits of cash for him and it’s easy enough to see why. The very lightly raced Obboorr also has claims with his mildly progressive profile.

A – 3 (Save The Bees), 9 (Euston Square)
B – 4 (Obboorr), 7 (Wyldfire)

4.45 – Leg 6: We close with a messy old thing, where most of them could beat most of the rest of them. True Pleasure and Dance For Georgie are the obvious ones, and I won’t be looking too far beyond the obvious here.

Berlusca looks a bit poor, Secret Empress doesn’t necessarily want this step up in trip, and Birdy Boy seems (a good bit) better on all weather. Moral Issue is bang out of form, and Cheers Buddy has been off a long time. So too has Indian Giver, though he at least ticks a few forms boxes and is a massive price.

Yep, let’s stick with the obvious.

A – 2 (Dance For Georgie), 4 (True Pleasure)

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Just A’s – 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 = 16 bets

All picks – 4 x 4 x 2 x 1 x 4 x 2 = 256 bets

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Carlisle Placepot Picks

Carlisle Placepot Picks

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