Stat of the Day, 14th August 2013
It was a bitter-sweet day for me yesterday, as the short-priced double I suggested came in at 5/2 (hopefully, those of you still hankering after the Daily Dabble were on it!), but the SotD pick, Mixed Message was beaten.
She ran well enough to finish 3rd at 9/2, missing out by a length or so, but she stayed on well at the end of the race and I can’t help wondering if the result might have different had she been asked for an effort a little earlier than she was.
All of which is supposition, of course and takes us nowhere. So, I’m heading South today to look at another 3yr old filly who runs in the…
And the horse in question is Silk Route, who is making her handicap debut today after three maiden runs that have shown promise and improvement, despite not troubling the record books. A sixth over 1m2f on debut was followed by a 5th place then a 4th place, both over 1m4f, giving her a handicap mark of 67 on debut, a workable figure once her allowances are factored in.
She is trained by Henry Candy and he has an excellent record with handicap debutants at the top end of the market. In the last three seasons, his record with horses making their handicap debut and priced at 6/1 or under is better than 1 in 3. He has saddled up 6 such winners from 17 for a strike rate of 35.3% and level stakes profits of 11.15pts at Betfair SP (the nearest assimilation to BOG prices we can realistically check). That profit is the equivalent of a 65.6% return on your money.
Despite showing some promise in her maiden events, she hasn’t quite got it right and has run greenly on occasions and looks like she had troubling settling in those races. However, without deriding the efforts of her pilots in the past, I feel that the booking of Richard Hughes today is a signficant one. Richard’s in great nick at the moment (running at a steady 25% strike rate of late) and I’d expect him to both get a bit more out of the horse whilst also being able to get her settled.
She’s a sister to Cravat, who was a winner in better contests than this one and I think we’ve an excellent chance to register our first winner of the winner with a 1pt win bet on Silk Route at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor. This price isn’t exclusive to them and is pretty much widely available. So, as ever, I heartily recommend that you…