Stat of the Day, 15th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2013

Close but no cigar seems to be the state of play for SotD at the moment, as we had to settle for third place once again on Wednesday.

If you’re wondering why I’m so early to post with Thursday’s pick, it’s because I’m off to visit my parents for a few days and I’ll be out of the house by 4am and may not get a chance to get online until mid-afternoon. Apparently, it’s bad manners to logon as soon as you arrive somewhere! 😀

They also say that if at first you don’t succeed, you should try again, so don’t adjust your set, I really am going to try the same time race again: the…

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4.30 Salisbury

My second bite at the 4.30 Salisbury inside two days lies with the David-Evans trained
My Own Way Home.

If I revisit some of my favourite micro systems that form a chunk of my betting portfolio, I often come back to looking at former Course & Distance winners returning to the scene of earlier triumph(s) and today is such an occasion.

Salisbury lends itself very well to returning C&D winners and in the last 3 seasons former C&D winners coming here on the back of a win last time out have won 5 from 14 races, a 35.71% strike rate for profits of 4.88pts with all five winners coming rom the twelve horses priced between Evens and 6/1 (41.67% strike rate, 6.88pts profit and an ROI of 57.33%)

David Evans is also very keen on sending C&D winners back to see of they can repeat the feat. Over the last three seasons he has run 70 horses who won last time out (Anywhere) back to the scene of a C&D victory within seven weeks of that last run. Eighteen of those seventy have repeated their C&D victory with that 25.71% strike rate generating 19.88pts profit for a tidy ROI of 28.4%.

Incidentally, each of those 18 winners came from the 59 horses priced at 8/1 or under. This improves the strike rate further to 30.5% and the profits rise to 30.88pts with a corresponding rise in the ROI to an excellent 52.3%.

My Own Way Home comes here in the form of her life. This 5yr old mare has already won six times and been placed a further six times from her twenty-three starts on turf, but has been an absolute revelation of late. She finished third in five consecutive races in a sequence starting here at Salisbury almost three months ago and since the last of those five runs, she strung together a 14-day hat-trick that ended 12 days ago.

She has of course been penalised for this phenomenal run of late, but I still don’t think that a mark of 67 (was as low as 54 a month ago!) will stop her winning again. The drop in trip should help ease any stamina issues and the fact that four of her six career wins have been over today’s 6f trip is also a bonus. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she doesn’t burst out of the stalls and attempt to make all. There is some early pace just inside her and this may well give her the impetus to hit the front early.

If she gets the lead, she’ll be difficult to catch/beat and I’m more than happy to place my 1pt win bet on My Own Way Home at 11/4 BOG with BetVictor. As I’ve written this about 16 or so hours before the race, the price may well fluctuate. In which case, I suggest that you…

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