Salisbury Placepot Picks, 15th August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

I spread out yesterday looking for a result or two, and it simply didn’t happen. The upshot was that we got the ‘pot but lost money, a regular issue and one which we just have to stomach. Looking around today, it’s scrappy stuff, and I think we’ll stay at Salisbury, though with a tighter perm the priority.

1.50 – Leg 1: The first of two seven furlong maiden divisions, and the clear starting point is debut second Starlight Serenade. She gets weight all round here due to the race conditions, and that second place finish, over six furlongs here, is close to the pick of the form. On the down side, the time of that race wasn’t too hot and they might go fast here. Plus, she’s been off for two months, and Beckett’s horses are normally pretty forward first time out too. She’s very short in the market meaning she’ll take plenty of placepot ticket hopes, and I’m going to take a second A with her and try to get her beaten.

Crystal Nymph is a Hannon newcomer that has seen market support this morning, and is expected to know its job here. They’ll do.

A – 4 (Crystal Nymph), 12 (Starlight Serenade)

2.20 – Leg 2: Division two of the seven furlong maiden. Warrendale looked in need of further when green and running on over six furlongs on her debut, and she’s a solid favourite here. I’m against Jersey Brown (favoured by the draw at Goodwood last time), and Ninety Minutes (beaten far enough in a similar race on debut), and instead favour Bright Cecily, who was only three and a half lengths behind the winner despite finishing ninth. That was in a fair Ascot maiden, and this looks winnable for her.

A – 2 (Bright Cecily), 10 (Warrendale)

2.50 – Leg  3: Another maiden, this time for older horses, and Paradise Watch looks a place certainty. He’s been second and third in his two runs to date, and the form of both is working out well. There are a couple who could improve enough to win, but the pick really ought to make the frame at least.

A – 6 (Paradise Watch)

3.25 – Leg 4: At last, a handicap, and a seven runner fillies’ affair at that. Chances. Java Rose has been well backed but I prefer the 3yo’s in middle distance handicaps at this time of year, as they’re generally well favoured by weight for age concessions, and have more improvement to come.

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With that in mind, Shalwa and Bantam, who fought out the finish at Windsor a few weeks back, look most interesting. Java Rose is included on B, along with Pivotal Silence, who gets support from the saddle from Richard Hughes for the first time today.

A – 4 (Bantam), 5 (Shalwa)
B – 3 (Java Rose), 7 (Pivotal Silence)

3.55 – Leg 5: A fascinating Group 3, despite just the six runners. Afsare is quirky for sure, but he is effective at a mile despite racing generally over further in his career, and he’s officially rated a few pounds higher than these. Snowboarder has been progressive this season, and was a bit unlucky not to be closer to Montiridge last time. That’s solid Group 3 form, and gives his a chance with conditions optimal for him here.

Fulbright has form to win this too, and may be sent on, either as a pacemaker for Snowboarder or in his own right. He’s a dogged ex-Johnston performer and either way, I think he could hang tough for quite a way down the lane. He’s won at Listed and Group 2 level, and was placed in three mile Group 2/3 races in Meydan in the Spring. He was disappointing last time, but that was his comeback run and I’d expect him to be sharper now.

Andrew Balding runs Highland Knight, a horse I can never get right. The trainer is bidding for a third straight win in the race, with a third different animal, and Highland Knight is certainly capable of mixing it if putting best hoof forward.

Professor has a bit to prove with regards the trip and indeed whether he’s quite good enough, while Boom And Bust probably isn’t up to this, despite a fine run last time (best drawn and got a soft lead).

A – 1 (Afsare), 6 (Snowboarder)
B – 3 (Fulbright), 4 (Highland Knight)

4.30 – Leg 6: There’s every chance that the big-priced Dawn Catcher will take them along here, and she could take some pegging back. Ignore her last run where she got by far the worst of a speed duel, posted wide throughout. It’s also possible she didn’t enjoy the all weather surface and, back on turf, she’s very interesting after a break.

My Own Way Home is an obvious contender. On a four-timer here, she’s been in the places on her last eight starts. Can she make it nine? Quite possibly.

Amber Heights has been well backed but her form profile implies she’s better on the all weather (just one turf win, no places, from twelve runs). Although the trainer is respected, I’ll overlook her today. Likewise, Commandingpresence, who has an excellent history but is trying to win off a career high mark at the age of seven and on her 84th start.

Jonny Portman loves a winner here (won this race in 2010), and he runs Tregereth, a fourteen race maiden, but one that has been placed second or third on seven of twelve turf starts! Three-quarters of a mile is her trip, and she’s now down to a mark of just 56, on ground that should suit. Renoir’s Lady has never won off higher than 50 and she looks to need to drop a pound or two further from her current 54.

A – 2 (My Own Way Home), 4 (Dawn Catcher), 9 (Tregereth)

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Just A’s – 2 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 3 = 48 bets

All picks – 2 x 2 x 1 x 4 x 4 x 3 = 192 bets

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Salisbury placepot picks

Salisbury placepot picks

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