Ripon Placepot Picks, 17th August 2013

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After a week of shilly-shallying with small fields and pretty desperate racing, it’s great to see some really competitive stuff everywhere this afternoon. The big fields have drawn me in at Ripon, and it’s to be hoped that the dividend justifies the adventurous approach!

2.15 – Leg 1: It’s stake preservation in leg one, as there are some big battles to fight later on, and this six furlong maiden has been won by Messrs Fahey, Easterby (T), and Burke in seven of the last ten years. Easterby’s main hope from his pair of entries looks to be the experienced Heroique, and she looks set to run well back at six furlongs.

Fahey and Burke are unrepresented, but Kevin Ryan – who took this in 2009 and has saddled a number of placed horses in it too, runs Zal Zilhom, who looked to fail to get the seven furlongs on his debut last time. This easier six and the benefit of a run could see improvement, and those are my pair against the field.

A – 2 (Zal Zilhom), 4 (Heroique)

2.50 – Leg 2: With just that flimsy nouvelle cuisine appetizer to tickle our palate, we move straight into the all you can eat buffet of the consolation race for the Great St Wilfred Handicap, a twenty runner six furlong charge of the (too) light (to get into the main race) brigade. Five of the first six home last year were draw in the bottom ten and that’s a trend that replicates itself in the main race, with a strong low draw bias (assuming the pace supports it, natch).

So we want far side, a pace presser on this pace-favouring strip, in form and proven on six good furlongs. Say hello to Fast Shot, who bizarrely appeared somewhere in my dream last night, and has a perfect profile! He’s a 16/1 shot and I’ve had to have a small serendipity wager as a consequence… ahem.

Backing him up from the low drawn batallion on my ticket will be Best Trip, Powerful Presence and Love Island. All are well drawn, and have chances, and of the trio I like Love Island the most. He looks almost certain to run well.

A – 3 (Love Island), 9 (Fast Shot)
B – 7 (Powerful Presence), 17 (Best Trip)

3.30 – Leg  3: The main event, and comments outlined above are valid here too. Low drawn, pace-pressing, proven class, and proven in big fields are what I’m after. In form nags get the nod over back class. Step forward a favourite of mine, Spinatrix. She’s just a super-consistent mare, and a triple course and distance winner to boot. Drawn against the rail is perfect for a trailblazer like her, and she’s a fair bet.

Prodigality has lucked out with the draw again, though not by too much this time. Drawn 18 in the consolation race last year, he ran a blinder to be second, and drawn 13 this time, he can run a stormer again with highly rated ‘bug’ rider, Oisin Murphy nicking seven off his back.

Both Rodrigo de Torres and Blaine are well drawn pace-pressers, and they make B in what is a risky looking play for such a race.

A – 5 (Spinatrix), 6 (Prodigality)
B – 8 (Blaine), 13 (Rodrigo De Torres)

4.05 – Leg 4: Perhaps tougher than the two preceding sprints is this mile handicap. Dubai Dynamo, Swiftly Done and Anton Chigurh are all reasonable options at prices, and will form the B set. On A, I’m risking Annina – once raced and ‘could be anything’; Hakuna Matata and No Poppy. I told you we needed to save some ammo!

Desert Creek has shown nothing in two starts this year, but 50/1 is huge about a horse for which conditions are ideal.

A – 9 (Annina), 12 (No Poppy), 13 (Hakuna Matata)
B – 1 (Anton Chigurh), 4 (Dubai Dynamo), 6 (Swiftly Done)

4.35 – Leg 5: Supplicant is a mile clear and should win. Lay on Betfair if the ‘pot is looking tasty, just in case.

A – 1 (Supplicant)

5.10 – Leg 6: I Say would have needed it last time, and is very well thought of. But she’s short enough for one that might need the ground softer and is so inexperienced. As such, I’m siding with proven handicap form in the shape of the top pair, Hot Rod Mamma and Nemushka. Hot Rod Mamma has won twice here and also won last time out off the same mark as today, so she ought to run her race. Nemushka has been in great form too and is only a pound higher than her last winning mark. The ground and trip should be fine for her.

On B, I’ll add Maybeagrey and the aforementioned I Say, with the former being proven under conditions but exposed, and the latter the potentially blot.

A – 1 (Hot Rod Mamma), 2 (Nemushka)
B – 3 (I Say), 5 (Maybeagrey)

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Just A’s – 2 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 2 = 48 bets

All picks – 2 x 4 x 4 x 6 x 1 x 4 = 768 bets

Ticket builder optimized perm – see below.

Ripon Placepot Picks

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