Stat of the Day, 17th August 2013
It was another disappointing day yesterday. The Codger was held up for a run and despite staying on well at the finish, was back in 5th place, the best past of 5 lengths away from the winner, after having drifted badly from our advised 5/1 out to a huge SP of 12/1 (opened at 8’s on course).
Hindsight is, of course, a wonderful thing, for the horse wouldn’t have been a selection at 12/1, due to the stats I used applying to shorter prices only.
I could do with a winner today, so I turn to a man in form for a tilt at the…
That man in form is John Gosden, who has saddled up 14 winners from 33 (42.4%) in the last fortnight for level stakes profits of 34.6pts at Industry SP, a return of 104.8%. Of the 33 runners , 22 in total have made the frame.
And whilst his strike rate at Doncaster isn’t the best on offer, the 26 winners from 114 runners from 2010 to 2013 represents a decent 22.8% and these winners have resulted in profits of 39.1pts (34.3% ROI) from blindly backing all his Doncaster runners in that time.
In that same timeframe with horses priced at 6/1 or under here at Doncaster, that record is 20 wins from 61 runners (32.8%) for 25.6pts (+43%ROI).
John has just the one runner here at Doncaster today, the previously unraced Psiloveyou, a 2yr old Sea The Stars filly out of a 2yr old winner over 7 furlongs and a close relative of Derby winner Ruler of the World, so she’s expected to be a decent sort and she holds an entry for the Fillies Mile, suggesting this race is a stepping stone to better things.
The Gosden yard has an excellent record with its 2yr old debutants, with 24 winners from 138 attempts (17.4%) in the last three seasons, with generated profits of some 67.7pts, return of 49.1% over stakes invested.
Those figures are further improved to a 26.1% strike rate with horses priced at 6/1 or under, thanks to 18 winners from 69 generating 25.1pts (+36.4% ROI).
So, we’ve a yard in form with a decent record at Doncaster running a very well-bred 2 yr old debutant. The yard’s record with juveniles is excellent, so I’m expecting a payout from my 1pt win bet on Psiloveyou this afternoon.
As of 8.15am this morning the market still hadn’t quite formed fully, with the best price on offer being the 100/30 at SkyBet. I normally wait for the BOG prices, but only Bet365 were showing a price. They were at 3/1 and I fancy this one to shorten anyway, so I’ll take SkyBet’s 100/30 today. You should, however, take the opportunity to…