Stat of the Day, 18th August 2013
I remain woefully on the cold list this week, as Psiloveyou failed to shine at Doncaster yesterday. She started slowly and was always playing catchup. She did make some headway in the middle stages, before petering out late on. The end result: 4th at 11/4 (we took 100/30) over 11 lengths behind the winner.
One last chance of redemption for the week, and it’s a fairly short journey from yesterday’s effort at Doncaster to today’s runner in the…
Where I’m siding with Nargys, trained by Luca Cumani and to be ridden by Andrea Atzeni.
Luca Cumani’s horses are in excellent form at present with six winners and two placed from just twelve runners in the last week alone and a 27% strike rate over the last month.
Meanwhile Andrea Atzeni is having a very profitable season with his 15% strike rate (73 winners from 489 rides) yielding level stakes profits of 142.5pts, a return over stakes of almost 30% with E/W backers also reaping the rewards with 99pts banked courtesy of a 36.8% strike rate (180 winning E/W bets from those 489 races).
The Atzeni/Cumani combination has two winners and three places from seven this season for profits of 21.3pts with a similar return for E/W punters.
They team up today with Nargys who has admittedly seemed to lose the plot slightly of late, but it is hoped/expected that the drop in class today will help a return to form, something which isn’t totally out of the question here.
Luca Cumani is very adept at dropping horses down in class to get instant results with 32 winners from 121 horses dropped in class over the last three seasons.
That 26.45% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 36.4pts (+30.1% ROI) and all 32 winners were priced at 12/1 or under.
In fact, the record with those dropped in class priced at 12/1 or under is 32 winners from 100 with profits of 57.4pts and a 59% place strike rate.
The early markets show an interesting price of 8/1 on offer in places, so the cautious call today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Nargys at 8/1 BOG with Coral. This price is also on offer at Ladbrokes and to see if other firms follow suit, simply…