Stat of the Day, 19th August 2013
Early to post again with this one, folks, as I’m travelling back from a few days at my parents and hoping for a good start to the new week.
Yesterday’s runner pretty well summed up the torrid time I had last week here on SotD: I put Nargys up at 8/1, thinking it was a decent price, but he opened at that same price, before being sent off at 10’s. He never featured nor looked like getting involved before trooping home a remote 9th of 12 runners.
It’s another of Yorkshire’s many tracks today, as I’ve a whole host of stats to support my runner in the…
Who is the Ruth Carr-trained Marcus Caesar.
Since the start of the 2009 season, it has been profitable to blindly back all Ruth Carr runners priced below 12/1 in handicap races. 137 winners from 887 runners = 15.45% for profits of 113.32pts = +12.8 % ROI
Mrs Carr’s record during that time in handicap contests here at Thirsk is 16/113 (13.1% SR) for 46.1pts profit, a return of 40.8% and of those there were 11 winners from 36 at odds of 6/1 or under: a strike rate of 30.56% responsible for 28.6pts profit, an ROI of 79.4%.
Marcus Caesar won here over course and distance last time out and C&D winners returning to Thirsk on the back of a win have won 6 from 33 (18.2%) in the last three seasons for profits of 14.14pts (+42.8% ROI), with all six winners coming from the 26 runners priced under 12/1 in handicaps. The 21.14 pts profit generated from this 23.1% strike rate equates to some 81.3% of stakes invested.
And finally, we should note that when Mrs Carr sends a C&D winner back to that track after a win, she has a 7/31 (22.6%) record in the last three seasons with profits of 14.63 pts (+47.2%) and all seven winners came from the twenty-one runners priced between 5/2 and 9/1. That 1 in 3 ratio provided profits of 24.63pts, a 117.3% return on stakes.
The horse itself won a course and distance handicap last month to break his duck after a series of progressively improving results and the runner-up that day has since gone on to win a handicap of her own, which will hopefully stand us in good stead today.
The combination of all those stats allied to the fact our selection is as low as 4/1 in places makes me believe that a 1pt win bet on Marcus Caesar at 6/1 BOG with Paddy Power is good value today. But for your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…