Stat of the Day, 19th August 2013
Stat of the Day
Stat of the Day, 19th August 2013
Early to post again with this one, folks, as I’m travelling back from a few days at my parents and hoping for a good start to the new week.
Yesterday’s runner pretty well summed up the torrid time I had last week here on SotD: I put Nargys up at 8/1, thinking it was a decent price, but he opened at that same price, before being sent off at 10’s. He never featured nor looked like getting involved before trooping home a remote 9th of 12 runners.
It’s another of Yorkshire’s many tracks today, as I’ve a whole host of stats to support my runner in the…
Who is the Ruth Carr-trained Marcus Caesar.
Since the start of the 2009 season, it has been profitable to blindly back all Ruth Carr runners priced below 12/1 in handicap races. 137 winners from 887 runners = 15.45% for profits of 113.32pts = +12.8 % ROI
Mrs Carr’s record during that time in handicap contests here at Thirsk is 16/113 (13.1% SR) for 46.1pts profit, a return of 40.8% and of those there were 11 winners from 36 at odds of 6/1 or under: a strike rate of 30.56% responsible for 28.6pts profit, an ROI of 79.4%.
Marcus Caesar won here over course and distance last time out and C&D winners returning to Thirsk on the back of a win have won 6 from 33 (18.2%) in the last three seasons for profits of 14.14pts (+42.8% ROI), with all six winners coming from the 26 runners priced under 12/1 in handicaps. The 21.14 pts profit generated from this 23.1% strike rate equates to some 81.3% of stakes invested.
And finally, we should note that when Mrs Carr sends a C&D winner back to that track after a win, she has a 7/31 (22.6%) record in the last three seasons with profits of 14.63 pts (+47.2%) and all seven winners came from the twenty-one runners priced between 5/2 and 9/1. That 1 in 3 ratio provided profits of 24.63pts, a 117.3% return on stakes.
The horse itself won a course and distance handicap last month to break his duck after a series of progressively improving results and the runner-up that day has since gone on to win a handicap of her own, which will hopefully stand us in good stead today.
The combination of all those stats allied to the fact our selection is as low as 4/1 in places makes me believe that a 1pt win bet on Marcus Caesar at 6/1 BOG with Paddy Power is good value today. But for your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
Click here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Thirsk
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