Leicester Placepot Picks, 20th August 2013

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Back on the winning trail yesterday at Worcester, though in truth nominating the first four winners at cumulative odds of 2,816/1 deserved better than the paltry return we received. It was a profit, but barely.

Just horrific fare on offer at the beaches – Yarmouth and Brighton – today, so we’ll wait for tonight and have a crack at some bigger fields at Leicester.

5.00 – Leg 1: Maiden fillies over the minimum kick us off, and the market ought to be about right here, with Shilla and Kanz likely contenders. Shilla ran a nice race behind a decent yardstick in Autumn Sunrise, and having been smartly away there, the drop back in distance should be all right. Kanz was beaten a length and a half by Autumn Sunrise on her penultimate start, and wouldn’t have as much improvement as Shilla who has had just the one run.

Of the pair, Shilla looks the more likely to go on, and gets a tentative banker nomination. Those of a nervous disposition can lay the place at around 1.25 but just keep an eye on the non-runner situation, as two would leave such a tactic exposed.

A – 9 (Shilla)

5.30 – Leg 2: Ah yes, you little beauty! A sixteen runner Class 6 nursery, already reduced to fifteen and therefore three places. Oxlip, a winner last time, was beaten in a seller a couple of starts back and surely is under-priced as favourite here, especially given that she had the run of the race last time in a five runner affair. This is much different from that.

Mister Mayday – form 677 – has been well backed, and a reasonable case can be made for him. He’s been racing in two classes higher in Newbury maidens, and not being disgraced despite having been held up in the manner of a borderline non-trier. But of course, I didn’t say that. He’ll be ready to rumble here and these are a lot softer (and a softer lot) than the Newbury good’uns he’s faced to date. Top weight and a mark of 65 is justified.

Dovil’s Duel was second in a Class 5 nursery last time, and is the most experienced in the field, having started out in the Brocklesby, the opening two year old race of the season. He’ll appreciate the drop in class and could run well.

Desert Colours has been beaten far enough in three runs to date and I’d think others might have more scope than him. Rockie Road is interesting for one simple reason: he’s got no form whatsoever and yet has been heavily wagered! A precautionary B placement for him. Krackerjill on the other hand does have a form claim. Not beaten far on any of her three runs, she’s looked like this trip with a level break could see her win, and today might be the day.

Almost Famous is well enough bred but has shown nothing in three seven furlong starts, the last two over Epsom’s undulating quirks. It could be that a furlong less and a flatter track bring about a good amount of improvement and, indeed, it will need to. Chance Of Romance drops back in trip after failing to stay in her last two runs.

I’ll take two from the top and four from anywhere else, please, Carole.

A – 1 (Mister Mayday), 3 (Dovil’s Duel)
B – 6 (Chance Of Romance), 7 (Almost Famous), 9 (Krackerjill), 12 (Rockie Road)

6.00 – Leg  3: Gravitational drops in class and could win, as could the four-timer-seeking Jubilee Dancer, who rises in class. The other four can be permed in exactas if we get a decent result on the preceding race, to cover stakes.

A – 1 (Gravitational), 3 (Jubilee Dancer)

6.30 – Leg 4: A funny race this. A couple of rags with back class chances are Hot Spice and Flying Applause, and they’ll form the B side. On A, Young Jay steps up in trip for his handicap debut for Mark Johnston, a trick he loves to perform; and Forget Me Not Lane has obviously been showing a lot more at home and may be back to his best.

Don Padeja, the jolly, is tough to weigh up. He showed nothing on his sole turf start, and has looked a better horse on all weather. While it’s too early to write him off as a turfer, he’s too short to make A on what he’s done, for me.

A – 1 (Forget Me Not Lane), 11 (Young Jay)
B – 3 (Hot Spice), 5 (Flying Applause), 8 (Don Padeja)

7.00 – Leg 5: Some historically decent nags in here but little in the way of recent form. Albaqaa might be the most solid option, and has verdicts over a few of these; while Alakhan drops a quarter mile to a much more appropriate trip and should give his running this time. I’ll take my chances with this pair against the field.

A -4 (Albaqaa), 6 (Alakahan)

7.30 – Leg 6: And if we’re still rolling, it’s a big field seven furlong handicap to finish. Incredibly, as I write, all sixteen stand, but expect at least one non-runner and therefore just three places to play with. Alluring Star looks a solid favourite, off near top weight, and easily makes A in her bid to make all. Shamrocked joins her as a consistent type that often runs well in big fields on fast ground.

Boy The Bell goes well for inexperienced riders, and has both won here and won for today’s inexperienced pilot. And Whistable Native ticks a few boxes and is back to a workable mark.

A – 3 (Alluring Star), 4 (Shamrocked)
B – 6 (Whitstable Native), 7 (Boy The Bell)

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Leicester placepot

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