Stat of the Day, 21st August 2013
Sod’s Law raised its ugly head again yesterday, as the highlighted Prescott/Morris partnership had one winner from two. I’d suggested that North Pole had a decent chance at 11/4 in the race before our selection ran and so it proved. North Pole won at 2/1 SP, giving Luke Morris back to back winners and a 12/1 double.
Unfortunately, he was unable to complete a quick treble on our selection Alzavola, who was a disappointing 5th of 6 runners as the 15/8 favourite. So poor in fact, that it prompted one unkind reader to suggest we call it a day at SotD.
I know that many of you will have backed both horses for a 1.75pt profit on the day, but the official record will show a blank.
Everyone knows that form is temporary and although this month has been a struggle, we are undeterred and working hard to find winners. We’re hoping for a better show from today’s selection in the…
The first of yesterday’s two winners for Luke Morris was trained by Rae Guest and it’s one of the Guest runners that I’m backing today: Cape Factor at 3/1 BOG.
This 2 yr old filly got off the mark at the first attempt here on Lingfield’s A/W surface six weeks ago, where she overcame some difficulties to get up inside the final 100 yards to win by a short head. She was pushed along from about halfway and even on debut seemed to be wanting a longer trip than that 6f on offer.
There looked to be much more to come from her and the step up to 7f for her handicap debut should suit her more. We are boosted by the fact that Rae Guest has a good recent record with horses making their handicap debut on an All Weather surface: six winners from fifteen (40% SR) for profits of 20.21 pts, a return of almost 135% above stakes.
Five of those six winners came from the six horses priced at 6/1 or under: a phenomenal 83.33% strike rate producing profits of 17.48 pts or 291.3% of stakes invested.
Cape Factor is Rae Guest’s sole entrant today and she seems to have been fairly leniently treated by the assessor for her handicap debut. She ran to a Racing Post Rating of 63 on her only race to date, yet has been handed that same mark by the handicapper today and with there being several signs of further improvement to come, she could be well in today.
She coped with this surface without too much issue last time out and really did look like needing further. breeding suggests she’ll want further still in time, as she’s an Oratorio half-sister to useful 1m/8.5f winner Benzanno from decent stock.
It should also be noted that the yard’s 2 yr olds are doing very well so far this summer, with 5 winners from 13 (38.5% SR) already generating level stakes profits of 17.9pts, an ROI of almost 138%. These 13 runners performed better when there was a bit of support in the market, with all four runners priced over 8/1 not being successful. The record at 8/1 or under this season is 5/9 for 21.9pts.
I expect Cape Factor to be well backed today, she was 9/2 overnight, but currently trades at anywhere between 9/4 and 3/1, depending on which bookie you look at. I’ve taken 3/1 BOG with Paddy Power today, but it does pay to shop around, so why not…