Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2013
Nothing for us yesterday as Cool Macavity finished back in th 4th place of the five runners. He would have finished third, but for being eased down late on, but by which time he was already well beaten. He was friendless in the market, being sent off at double our original 3/1 price and didn’t seem to last the trip, so the layers were right on this occasion.
I’m looking to make quick amends with a selection in the…
Where we turn to one of my SotD mainstays: Mickael Barzalona, due to his fantastic record here on the July course at Newmarket. To date he has ridden 32 winners from 130 attempts here: an excellent record of just under one winner in four (24.6%), producing level stakes profits of some 63.5pts (a 49% return on stakes). This year has been no exception, as he has clocked up 13 winners from his 43 rides (30.2%) for 16.6pts (+38.7% ROI) profit.
Those figures aren’t bulked out or skewed by big priced winners either: his best figures come when he’s on a horse priced between Evens and 12/1 with 30 of his 32 winners being priced accordingly. This 30 winners come from 104 rides (28.9% SR) for 86.7pts (+83.4% ROI) profit and this year alone that record is 11/33 for 23.9pts, a more than healthy 72.3% return on stakes.
Now Mickael has a good list of rides today: 6 in total, so I’d expect a winner or two at the very least, but which to go for?
In the end, I’ve sided with Stagemanship at 11/4 BOG with Coral. Stagemanship is trained by Charlie Appleby, as are all Mickael’s rides here today and their record as a trainer/jockey partnership is 9/27 on horses priced at 6/1 or under, which also suggests a couple of winners today, as does their record of three winners and two seconds here from just five attempts.
Stagemanship ran very green on debut at Nottingham in his only previous start, but looked very useful and rallied well once pressure was applied. He battled well that day and there looks to be much much more to this one than at first met the eye. So much so, that the handicapper may well have underestimated this $275,000 yearling with his opening mark of 77.
He’s a son of Pivotal and the second foal out of a decent US winner over a mile and 9 furlongs, who actually stayed well up to 10 furlongs when asked and the way this one ground out his win in that Nottingham maiden suggests he’ll develop into a decent sort too with bags of improvement/potential to come.
Another interesting (to me, anyway! :D) stat that is applicable here is the performance at the July course of horses that won a Nottingham maiden last time out. There are, admittedly, only 19 instances of this happening, but the fact that 6 of the 19 (31.6%) have won here for profits of 17.7pts (+93.2%) cannot be ignored.
In fact, all six ex-Nottingham maiden winners to come here and win came from the dozen priced at 7/1 or under, a nice neat 50% strike rate generating a huge ROI of 205.9%, courtesy of the 24.7pts profit.
The main danger here is Chief Barker, who holds a couple of Group 1 entries, but runs for a Richard Hannon yard desperately out of form (just one winner at 6/4 from his last 40 runners and 34 losers on the bounce), therefore I feel that at 11/4 BOG with Coral that Stagemanship could out do him for us today. That price of 11/4 looks quite generous, as he’s as low as 9/4 generally, but you can always…