It’s live blog time from 1pm, but to whet your appetite for the live setup, here are some bits and pieces from our ‘Race Analysis Report’ testing (piped directly into the page, so you can play with the variables – do note that a number of items are not working quite as they should be though!)
As well as that, there are some great trends and analysis for the two big races, courtesy of Gavin Priestley’s consistently excellent Festival Trends offering.
1300 – Hi, and welcome to live bloggie! Over the next four hours, we’ll enjoy six races from York, some banter, news on other horses, a tilt at the placepot, a word on a free bet that runs out today, and your questions answered. Phew!
This will hopefully be a dialogue, meaning I need your questions, comments and wins/losses. So, do please leave a comment at the bottom or tweet on @geegeez_uk to help me feel like I’m not on my own here.
Let’s start with… what are you backing today? Best bet? Big priced possibles? Let us know!!!
1305 – So, what’s happening below?! Good question, and I’m glad you asked 😉
This is one of the new features soon to be unleashed on geegeez. It’s an ‘at a glance’ traffic light view of the race, showing which horses have performed best for the main factors of going, class, distance, course and field size.
Do note that class includes all Class 1 races (from Listed to Group 1) in that class; and that distance isn’t fully working yet (it’s only including exact matches, like 5f 9yds). Ignore the right hand column – not ready yet.
Sorry, also, the places tab currently includes all top four finishes and excludes wins! Being worked on and will be sorted by the time we actually go live.
So, yes, a partially working beta, but one that is still surprisingly helpful!
Tweet – @MattBisogno chancery and shea shea for me today, ,chancery a little extra weight but I ,ll take a chance
Mick likes Party Line in the first. Alas, that one’s a non-runner..! What else is fancied there?
1310 – I’m having a crack at the placepot again this afternoon (glutton for punishment), and the picks for that can be found here. If you fancy having a crack at the placepot, or any totepool bet, do note that Betfred are offering a free £10 bet on the Ebor tomorrow to anyone betting £10 or more on the tote at York today. There’s a link on that placepot page.
Comments – Paul is looking out for Tepmokea at a price – been well backed, so someone else likes it too! Ian thinks middle to high will prevail, which is interesting because I have a suspicion that the far rail might be the place today (going stick slightly slower against the stands – near – rail).
Chris and Robson are enjoying the new reports – just wait til they’re finished guys. Serious tool, I hope! And Rab just wanted to say hi. Hi Rab!
Colin’s in with a shout for York Glory and Jim (hi!) is on Robin Hood’s Bay but wanted that third place for his each way tickle.
Non-Runner Update: These nags won’t be winning, because they’re not running…
13:55 2 Hanoverian Baron, 7 Party Line
15:40 1 Borderlescott, 4 Kingsgate Choice
16:55 7 Ayaar, 12 Enobled
1319 – 35 minutes til we’re underway, and it’s a race that looks like weedling the placepot down a fair bit, irrespective of what happens. Sir Michael Stoute has a fine record and Gospel Choir might be the one, with Ryan Moore driving. The Race Analysis Report (RAR, perhaps, for short) gives a shout to Kiama Bay and Rio’s Rosanna as well.
1322 – Want something else in development? We’re really spoiling you this afternoon. How about the Pace Analysis Report (PAR, perhaps, for short)? This is the raw content page and, as you can see, we have a few (ok, a lot!) of runs where the pace comment hasn’t been accommodated yet. But you get the idea…
Those horses that might race close to the pace in the opener are Gospel Choir, Tepmokea and Scatter Dice.
Comments – Our own Badly Drawn Horse man, Ben Aitken, is risking Tepmokea, covered with Gospel Choir in the first. Meanwhile, Colin‘s been on again as he likes the look at Short Squeeze later on.
Josh W also a fan of Tepmokea, and Paul has been kind enough to give us his horses to swerve (because he’s backed them!) – Ahzeemah, Danadana, Swiss Spirit and Majestic Moon. Good luck Paul!
1334 – Five minute break here. Putting placepots on! Feel free to ask questions as well as make comments etc and I’ll try to answer any burning ones for you…
1340 – OK, placepots placed. So to the first race. See below the first RAR.
1.55 York – Sky Bet Handicap
Race analysis tab – change the going to ‘good to soft’ and the runners to ’12-15′
[iframe src=”http://www.geegeez.co.uk/raceanalysis/index.php?id=277658″ width=”100%” height=”450″]
Sir Michael Stoute has won a couple in recent times, and has the lightly raced Gospel Choir. He’s got top weight and hasn’t run for a year, but I still think he’ll be hard to beat. He won first time out last year, and might just be a bit better than a handicapper in due course.
Winterlude is equally unexposed and steps up in trip. He has much less weight and could run well. Of the more hardened ‘cappers, Rio’s Rosanna (John B likes this one too) and Kiama Bay are a couple I’d keep on the right side of, while many of you are fans of Tepmokea.
1348 – First show in and Gospel Choir is short at 9/2, while Winterlude has been trimmed from 13/2 to 6/1. After that pair, Rio’s Rosanna and Chancery are both 8/1, Castilo Del Diablo (totally unfancied by me, so probably wins) is 9/1, and it’s 10/1 bar, bringing in Kiama Bay, Scatter Dice and White Nile.
Tepmokea is 14’s, having been 33/1 early.
Comments – David M is in for Sole Power in the big one. He reckons it’s a knocking each way bet.
1350 – Track… With the 20mm of rain overnight, it will be very interesting to see a) how much mud is kicked up, b) how quick the races are, and c) where on the track the jockeys elect to race. All, or at least some, will be revealed five minutes hence…
Comments – Rab is back with a very brave straight line placepot selection (two in the last, actually), and he’s on #1 – Gospel Choir – in the first.
1353 – Market update. 4/1 Gospel, 7/1 Winter, 8/1 bar. Money for Kiama Bay and Scatter Dice, both in to 9’s.
1355 – They’re off! Good luck to all in the opener. 7/2 Gospel Choir! (Dirty burglar bookies!)
1358 – It’s David O’Meara again!!! Chancery cruises into it and wins, from Rio’s Rosanna and the fast finishing Kiama Bay. The last name takes all placepot tickets through… just!
1400 – Full Result:
1st 3 Chancery (USA) 7/1
2nd 14 Rio’s Rosanna (IRE) 9/1
3rd 11 Kiama Bay (IRE) 8/1
Tweet – @johnfarrell310 @geegeez_uk Betting on betfair saying that sole power cant win would you share that view??
– He obviously CAN win, but the question is a) will he, and b) does his price offer any value? The answer is a) maybe, though not for me, and b) no, not at all. I expect he might drift before the race, and Slade Power and Spirit Quartz would be a couple that might shorten, based on the ground.
Tweet – @DennehyPat @geegeez_uk gospel choir, times up, ground totally against sole power so Swiss spirit in the nunthorpe
– Unlucky with Gospel Choir. Looked to have every chance, but couldn’t quicken. Not sure Swiss Spirit wants is softer than good either…!!
Comments – Pete Williams is asking if he’s allowed to be smug about backing that winner, Chancery, at 14/1. Hell yeah, Pete!!! Well done sir. 😀
1408 – Going update – This on twitter from Simon Rowlands, head or R&D at Timeform,
“Official time is 2:32.86 and a quickish last 3f of ~36.8s (103.8% fin spd). Good ground horses should be OK.”
1410 – Today’s placepot pool is £324,930. After the 27% take out, that leaves a net pool of £237,198.90 to be equally divided between the winners. £88,738.94 still in the pool after the first leg. Loooooong way to go.
1412 – OK, it’s time to take a look at the next race, the Lonsdale Cup. After that, I’ll have news on some other horses… See below the next RAR… Yes, just down there. Scroll on, dear reader. 😉
2.30 York – Lonsdale Cup
Race analysis tab – change the going to ‘good to soft’
[iframe src=”http://www.geegeez.co.uk/raceanalysis/index.php?id=277659″ width=”100%” height=”250″]
Key Lonsdale Cup Trends
Killer stat: 14 of the last 15 winners had raced 2-5 times that TURF flat season
• Not many 3yo’s have tried but all have failed in the last 15 years
• 7 and 8yo’s have won 5 of the last 13 runnings
• 14 of the last 16 winners were from the top 4 in the betting
• All of the last 16 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• Since being a Group race 13 of the 14 winners had won at least a Listed contest.
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated 107+ (1 exception unrated Irish winner Septimus who surely would have been rated 111+).
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run in a Group 2 race or better (10/15 in a Group 1 race)
• All of the last 16 winners ran over 1m4f+ last time out
• 15 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 1m4f
• 13 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 6 last time out
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run 14 or more times in their career
• 12 of the last 16 winners had a top 2 finish that season (14/16 top 3 finish)
Interesting Fact: 10 of the last 14 winners ran at Goodwood with 9 of them contesting the Goodwood Cup.
Simenon is the key horse here. He’s as short as 13/8, but may not like the ground. In any case, he was stuffed last year in this, despite winning twice earlier in the season at Royal Ascot. Ahzeemah ought to run his race, though I was surprised that Kieren was jocked off, and last year’s winner, Times Up, looks to have a really decent chance again if you can forgive his hopeless run last time (when connections felt he simply didn’t stay).
I quite like Times Up, and I’ve had a little bet on him. Not much, just an interest. I also think Colour Vision is over-priced.
Comment – Our own Chris W, Stat of the Day man and all round top banana, is a fan of Times Up too. Us both agreeing on the same horse: kiss of death, or double delight? Martin likes Ahzeemah’s consistency here.
1421 – By the way, have you entered your fancies in the Tipping League yet? No?! Well, get to it, pronto! You could win a share of £200 in free bet loveliness, and it’s free to enter (of course).
1422 – This month’s leader is Katweazel currently, who went from zero to hero yesterday, by nominating 9/1 scorer Haikbidiac and… 25/1 scorer (gulp), Mont Ras. Excellent tipping! There’s still time for you to pick two nice winners and creep up on the Katweazel… Click here for the tipping league.
1425 – Mark J is in the house now, and he can’t see past Simenon here. He reckons Johnny G might go well with Caucus too. Good luck, Sir!
1426 – Market check: 2/1 Simenon, 4/1 Ahzeemah, 9/2 Times Up, 11/2 (from 6) Caucus, 8/1 Colour Vision, 12/1 Glen’s Diamond, and 25/1 Askar Tau
1428 – Times Up is the clear RAR pick, with a line of green against his name on good to soft. Fingers crossed for that one…
1429 – Simenon is, like just about every favourite this week, clipped in a fraction in the last couple of minutes. There has been some very stealthy bookmaking this week, and the advice is most definitely to bet early Best Odds Guaranteed.
1430 – They’re off to time again – good luck!
1435 – Ahzeemah wins the races, beating the game wanderer, Simenon, with Times Up – door shut in his face – third. It was a strange muddling race, and I’ll be interested to see what the time boys make of the furlong sectionals.
Did you back Ahzeemah? Paul did! Well done to you.
1438 – Full result of the Lonsdale Cup:
1st 1 Ahzeemah (IRE) 4/1
2nd 6 Simenon (IRE) 15/8 f
Placepot still has £54k in the pool. All geegeez lines still running, but we need a result in there. Hopefully not in the next, when we’re banked on the favourite.
Coming up next: nag news – geegeez horses past and present.
1445 – There are a few horses in which I have bits of involvement, some with fellow geegeez readers and some on my lonesome. Three of interest just now are…
Man Of Leisure – Anthony Honeyball’s club horse has been brilliant in winning five of six hurdle starts. He looked to be cantering to victory at Ffos Las on his chase debut yesterday before getting in way too close at one down the back and giving Rachael Green no chance. He’ll be back, perhaps as soon as Fontwell next Thursday.
Khajaaly – the former geegeez horse is now trained by Mick Appleby, having been bought at the recent Ascot Sales, and he makes his first start for his new yard tonight at Newcastle. In a strange twist of fate, Newcastle was also the track at which Khajaaly had his first run for us, finishing fourth of seven. Despite him being a sixteen race maiden on turf (three wins and a million places on all weather), he’s been close to a green win a few times. It will be very interesting to see how Mick does with him as he must be considered a well-handicapped beast. I’ve backed him, mainly out of sentiment and only for small money, in the 6.55 this evening.
Priceless Art – One of the current geegeez horses, he’s been disappointing, but has a chance to make amends in a claiming hurdle next Wednesday at Worcester. The oppo doesn’t look strong, and this is something of a last chance saloon for a horse we had high hopes with.
And so to the 3.05 – commentary below…
3.05 York – Strensall Stakes
Race analysis tab – change the going to ‘good to soft’
[iframe src=”http://www.geegeez.co.uk/raceanalysis/index.php?id=277660″ width=”100%” height=”250″]
An interesting little race, and one in which I’m siding with the improving, Pavlosk. She was considered good enough to be thrown into Group 1 company two starts back and, while she got found out there, she is a Listed winner and this is a small step up. She ran well from a poor draw last time at Goodwood and I reckon the trip here is spot on.
Many of you like Robin Hood’s Bay, a progressive sort who was second in the Winter Derby on the all weather. That’s a Group 3, as is this, so he has the class. There is a question mark about the ground but he hasn’t proven he doesn’t act on softish, so he might run well for you fanciers out there!
1456 –Where’s the pace in the Strensall? Tricky from a pace perspective. Both Archbishop and City Style are capable of going on, as possible could Pavlosk. Archbishop looks the most likely, and if he’s allowed an easy lead he might just steal it. He goes on soft and, if fit enough first time up, might be interesting. He’s a Group 3 winner and a Group 2 runner up.
1501 – Market check: 7/4 Pavlosk, 11/2 Archbishop, 6/1 Robin Hoods Bay, 15/2 City Style, 8/1 Danadana, 8/1 Gabrial, 11/1 Red Avenger
Four minutes to race three!
1503 – Almost half (£23,000 of £54,000) of the remaining pool is on Pavlosk here, including my banker tickets! Come on Pavlosk, today’s the day, my lovely!
1506 – Good luck all, race three is off! 6/4 Pavlosk – more bookie clipping. Good Lord…
1509 – Good Lord indeed. Pavlosk never going, nor was Robin Hoods Bay, and it was City Style who held the late rally of Danadana. Placepots all down. Horrible race, wherever you are. Winner drifted from 5/1 to 9/1. Danadana finished last in both his last two starts. Go figure!
1512 – I’m really aggrieved at that result. It’s just one of those races where, whichever way you look at it, it’s very, very hard to make a case for the first two.
1515 – Strensall Stakes Full Result:
1st 3 City Style (USA) 9/1
2nd 1 Danadana (IRE) 8/1
Right, five minutes break for a cup of tea and a regroup after that shocker. Back at 1520.
3.40 York – Nunthorpe Stakes
Race analysis tab – change the going to ‘good to soft’
[iframe src=”http://www.geegeez.co.uk/raceanalysis/index.php?id=277661″ width=”100%” height=”450″]
Key Nunthorpe Stakes Trends
Killer stat: 13 of the last 14 winners had won a race that season (exception was 2yo maiden winner)
• 14 of the last 18 winners were 3-6yo’s
• Only three 6yo’s have won since 1980
• 3 of the last 5 3yo winners had won the July Cup
• Only 3 horses aged over 6 have won in the races 87 year history (all 3 in last 9 years)
• 16 of the last 18 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• 12 of the last 14 winners had run in a Group 2 or better race (Exception was 2yo winner & 2010 shock 100/1 winner)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Group Race
• 10 of the last 11 winners with an official rating were rated 108+
• All of the last 18 winners ran over 5-6f last time out
• 11 of the last 13 winners had a top 3 finish in a 5f Pattern race (1 exception hadn’t run over 5f)
• 12 of the last 14 winners had a top 2 finish in at least 1 of their last 2 runs
• 12 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 4 last time out (15/15 top 6)
• All of the last 14 winners had run at least twice that season (13/14 2-6 times)
Interesting Fact: 15 of the last 18 winners had their last run at Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood or Newmarket’s July meeting
Interesting fact 2: In the last 12 years all of the 4yo and older winners had won over 5f while all bar one of the younger runners were winning over the trip for the first time
1523 – OK, lot’s of facts and figures here, thanks Gavin. Looks like we need a fairly fancied runner, rated 108+ and a 5f pattern race placed sort. Bonus point for finishing 1-2 in one last two races.
1525 – Shortlist is Shea Shea, Sole Power, Slade Power, Moviesta, Kingsgate Native and Swiss Spirit.
If form on a bit of give is material, that leads us to Slade Power and Moviesta.
What do you like in the Nunthorpe?
1530 – Is anyone out there?! Very quiet now. Are we all sulking about the placepot? Or concentrating on the next?
Opening show in for Nunthorpe. Massive shock (not) to see Shea Shea is half a point shorter than it’s been all day at 7/2. 11/2 Sole Power (bigger, in fairness), 13/2 Moviesta, 7/1 Swiss Spirit, 8/1 Slade Power.
1534 – OK, let’s fire this up. I’m going with Slade Power, Spirit Quartz and Jwala, the last two each way. Need something from somewhere to prevent another desperate day. Painful to write when it’s getting away from you…
1537 – If you’ve been following all day, it won’t come as a surprise to you that the first six in the betting have all been cut in price. Currently betting to over 125%
1540 – OK, let’s get ready to rumble. Best of luck to you here. Send my fancies a good vibe as well as your own. 🙂
1546 – Wow!!! Jwala. 80 on Betfair!!! 😀
1550 – Brilliant. Not much on, but then how much do you need at 80 on Betfair?! Also 17 for the place. Sweet sweet patience loveliness! Jwala is now officially my favourite horse!
1555 – Still peeling myself off the ceiling after that. Accused of after-timing on twitter. So what? As you’ll know, there was some before timing as well. Also in the placepot picks, where I wrote, “Jwala has an outside squeak if you can forgive her run last time, when she completely fluffed the start.” Good girl. Such a lovely lass!!!
Full result of the Nunthorpe:
1st 16 Jwala 40/1
2nd 6 Shea Shea (SAF) 3/1 f
3rd 8 Sole Power 4/1
1602 – As Martin points out on the comments, have you noticed how much green the winners have had?! The RAR will be fun 🙂
1608 – The next race is a maiden, which was won last year by BetFred Mile winner, Wentworth. It’s a good maiden, but it’s a maiden nevertheless.
Plenty of cash for Derbyshire this morning, an unraced Kevin Ryan horse, and we know from this post that Ryan has plenty of 2yo winners at this meeting. Might be worth a small interest.
1613 – One more point on the RAR. Note that the data is updated in real time when the results come in, so the green lines look better for the winners after. Just wanted to clear that up before people think they’ve discovered the ‘golden goose’. Also, as already stated, there are plenty of bits of it that don’t work as we’d like right now. For all that, it is an incredible time saver.
1617 – Anyone still going in the placepot? Got a text from Councillor Jim, with whom I was at York yesterday, and he is. Good man. Hope some of you are too.
4.20 Convivial Maiden Stakes
1620 – A big come down from the Nunthorpe, but they’re off!
1625 – Golden Town makes it a very good day for those boys in blue, Godolphin, winning at 4/1.
1628 – This was yet another race when those close to the pace did best. A few have closed to be placed, but the percentage call has to be a handy position during the early part of the race. I’ll be looking at the pace in the last with that in mind.
1632 – Josh W, who has had a bad day, gets some back with 66/1 (returned 33/1) placer, Bow Creek, based on the sire stats of all things! Good work, Josh. There’s still time to come out in front on the last!
1633 – Full Result of the Convivial Maiden:
1st 4 Golden Town (IRE) 4/1
2nd 6 Red Galileo 15/8 f
3rd 1 Bow Creek (IRE) 33/1
1636 – OK, lucky last upcoming. Commentary below the Race Analysis Report…
4.55 3yo Handicap Stakes
Race analysis tab – change the going to ‘good to soft’
[iframe src=”http://www.geegeez.co.uk/raceanalysis/index.php?id=277663″ width=”100%” height=”450″]
1639 – OK, best on the RAR win are Secret Art and One Word More, and on the RAR place we’re looking at One Word More, Machete Mark and perhaps Enobled.
Looking at pace analysis, One Word More should race prominently, and that’s more than enough to make him a solid each way tickle here. Oh yeah, and he’s a 33/1 shot! Run in Group races the last twice, this is much more like it.
Looks like Spencer/Hills quietly fancy One Word More here. He’s very strong on Betfair and has come in to 25s with the bookies.
1648 – Seems like people are enjoying the RAR. As they used to say in the back of the removal van in the KitKat advert, it’ll “be even better when we get the carpets in…!”
1650 – Market check – It’s 9/2 Hay Dude and Machete Mark, 5/1 Short Squeeze, 7/1 Majestic Moon and Secret Art.
Majestic is likely to lead and is bidding for a four-timer. He could be one of those ‘why didn’t I back that’ types after the race…
1653 – Had a cheeky slice on Secret Art too. Two against the field with One Word More. I want both to be prominent as I don’t expect too many to get involved from off the pace. Let’s hope I’m right about that, and you’re all on with me!!!
1654 – They’re going behind for the lucky last. Hoping it will be lucky. By the way, Councillor Jim has 3, 5 and 11 here on the placepot. All massive prices, and all for 80p. Very good luck to him with those.
1659 – Short Squeeze wins the last for Hugo Palmer, and Colin M. Equity Risk was second for Councillor Jim, and gives him 80p of what I think will be a £509.60 dividend, or £407.68 for cash. Lovely stuff indeed. Just a shame I’m not there to get a drink out of it. 😀
1703 – Full result:
1st 17 Short Squeeze (IRE) 5/1
2nd 11 Equity Risk (USA) 14/1
3rd 1 King George River (IRE) 20/1
1708 – And that’s about it for now. Thanks a million for your company this afternoon. I hope some of you won a few quid on what was a very very tough day’s punting. Obviously I’ve smashed my way out of trouble on the day (and the week) with Jwala, and that’s why I/we tickle the big prices – because sometimes they do us a favour!
Tomorrow should be easier, or at least not any harder, and do be sure to check the pace in the first race as it could well pay to be handy again.
I’ll have a placepot perm tomorrow but no full preview as such. Have a great bank holiday weekend, and good luck if you’re punting.
p.s. Don’t forget your free Betfred tenner if you had a tote bet with them this week at York.
p.p.s. If you’ve not got a Betfred (or any other account), check out our 12-to-1 tool which will do the hard work for you.