York Placepot Picks, 23rd August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

We about broke even yesterday, with the pot paying very little (£47.60), alas. Es Que Love was a big blow, with Dettori dropping his hands and getting passed for fourth place by a horse with loads of placepot money on it (Frog Hollow). That meant instead of having double lines in a good result, we had single lines in a bad result. Thanks Frankie.

To day three on the Knavesmire, and perhaps it’s our turn today… then again, with two seven runner fields and four huge fields, maybe not!

1.55 – Leg 1: Sixteen declared for this, and already a non-runner bringing us down to three places, of course. This is one handicap that has generally gone the way of Newmarket rather than Yorkshire, and they again have a strong hand with Winterlude and Gospel Choir heading the betting. Both have solid chances, with a single knock against each: Winterlude is stepping up a quarter mile and may not stay, while Gospel Choir hasn’t run for a year (but won first time up last term).

They make the A ticket, as does Kiama Bay, who was second in this two years ago and for whom the heavy overnight rain will have been a blessing. In a brave-ish opening, I’m taking that trio against the field.

A – 1 (Gospel Choir), 11 (Kiama Bay), 13 (Winterlude)

2.30 – Leg 2: Simenon is the favourite, but the ground might just have gone against him, as he loves it quick, according to his trainer. He was only fifth in this last year, having won twice at Royal Ascot. Times Up won this last year, and the ground has come for him. He didn’t stay in the Ascot Gold Cup but connections are quite bullish about their chance today. He ought to go well.

Ahzeemah has been in the first two in his last nine starts (!), and that sequence includes the Dubai Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup (second in both). He seems to always run his race, and Silvestre de Sousa gets on fine with him. I’m not sure the give in the ground is ideal, but he ought to be thereabouts. Stablemate Colour Vision does like it soft, and he won the Ascot Gold Cup as recently as last year, so 9/1 looks a bit of value.

Glen’s Diamond is respected, given he can go from the front, and also his course record of 201. On the downside, the 2 and 1 were both in the Yorkshire Cup (a mile and six), and the 0 was in this last year. The ground is probably against Caucus and Askar Tau now.

A – 1 (Ahzeemah), 7 (Times Up)
B – 4 (Colour Vision), 6 (Simenon)

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3.05 – Leg  3: The give in the ground could be the key to Pavlosk, a very nice filly in the making. Although she has as much as ten pounds to find with these on official ratings, she has the most scope and the step up in trip should help her show more, as should the sodden turf. In a seven runner race, I’m risking her as a banker, and will take my medicine if she’s out of the first two. You might want to take a different course, and that’s up to you!

A – 7 (Pavlosk)

3.40 – Leg 4: And so to the Nunthorpe, a cracking Group 1 five furlong sprint. The ground might have gone against Sole Power, and possible Shea Shea too. They’re both riskier propositions on the soft side of good at least. It might also be on the slow side for some or all of Swiss Spirit, Tickled Pink, and Kingsgate Native.

Those who should act on it include the progressive pair, Slade Power and Moviesta; and Spirit Quartz, who ran a blinder to be second in this last year. Jwala has an outside squeak if you can forgive her run last time, when she completely fluffed the start.

A – 6 (Shea Shea), 7 (Slade Power)
B – 9 (Spirit Quartz), 14 (Moviesta)

4.20 – Leg 5: Derbyshire has been very heavily backed for the trainer with the best York Ebor meeting juvenile record, Kevin Ryan. Red Galileo is the most obvious form contender and shouldn’t be too troubled by the deeper ground. They’ll do.

A – 3 (Derbyshire), 6 (Red Galileo)

4.55 – Leg 6: A super-tough final race, a three year old mile handicap. I’m taking plenty of bullets, mindful that it might be a case of closing the stable door after the placepot has bolted…

Hey Dude and Equity Risk look the best of the Yorkshire brigade, while Newmarket could go well with King George River. Others to consider include Tamayuz Star, Secret Art and Irish raider Machete Mark.

A – 2 (Hay Dude), 9 (Machete Mark), 14 (Secret Art)
B – 1 (King George River), 4 (Tamayuz Star), 11 (Equity Risk)

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York Placepot Picks

York Placepot Picks

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