Southwell Placepot Picks, 27th August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

After some moderate attempts at York and a short break, placepots are back, at Southwell this evening, some moderate racing!

4.40 – Leg 1: A 0-55 sprint handicap gets us moving, and they come no worse than this, I assure you! Market moves are material in such contests, and those for money are Exkaliber, Beach Rhythm, and especially Heart Beat Song. Exkaliber has never run at this specialist track before, but his sire, Exceed And Excel, is profitable to follow blind at the track, and has a 40% place strike rate. That’s enough to make A for this market fancy.

Beach Rhythm ran fourth on his only try at this course, which was also at this grade but a furlong further. Dropping back in trip is clearly expected to bring about some improvement, and he was only beaten four and a half lengths on that sole prior Southwell start. Heart Beat Song has had less tries than most, but is surely bred for a fair bit further. He ought to be staying on, but the bird might well have flown (perhaps a more appropriate analogy would be that the slow boat to China may have set sail) by then.

Depden is slow, but he did run third on his only start here, and he tends to finish closer to the winner than many of these have. He gets in on the act here as well. Kwanto drops in trip and grade and is from respected local connections, but he’s looked seriously moderate to date. Sarah Berry probably won’t act on the surface (cue a win for Sarah Berry), and Lord Buffhead has failed to place in eight runs at the track.

Code Six at a bigger price looks interesting.

A – 5 (Exkaliber), 11 (Depden)
B – 4 (Code Six), 8 (Beach Rhythm)

5.10 – Leg 2: Nine go in this juvenile handicap, and some of them are woeful. Voladina ran a much more promising race last time and, if she doesn’t get completely outpaced early, she might run into a place through the sand storm kick back. On the pace is the best place to be though, and By The Light looks most likely to lead. With Action Franny Norton in the saddle, he has realistic prospects of lasting out.

A – 2 (By The Light), 8 (Voladina)

5.45 – Leg  3: It’s a Class 6 maiden next, as the quality continues to plumb the depths. Black Vale has at least run well here, and is the safest option in a race where Zal Zilhom may be favourite. Donny Rover has run respectably in higher class the last twice, and is very experienced. I’ll take those two against Zal.

A – 2 (Black Vale), 3 (Donny Rover)

6.15 – Leg 4: A better maiden, with three of the five runners, rated about 70. Whoop! Akeed Dubawi and China Creek are inseparable in the betting, with the latter rated five pounds higher and in receipt of five pounds too. That makes her ten pounds ‘well in’ and, on that basis, she should finish in front. She’s also dropping back in trip to the distance at which she ran by far her best race, and I think she’s worthy of banker status. Gulp.

A – 3 (China Creek)

6.45 – Leg 5: A much more competitive event, and Slip Of The Tongue bids for a fourth straight win, and a second over course and distance. But he’s not even favourite which attests to the depth of the race. That honour currently falls to Wadaa, a soft ground winner last time out from the hot James Tate yard. He should appreciate this extra furlong, and ought to handle the track on his first try at anything other than turf (soft ground horses tend to do fine here).

That pair are the two highest rated in the race and, because they’re three year olds, they are in receipt of a chunk of weight (twelve pounds to be precise) from the rest.

Proud Times has a course record of 141 and that includes a course and distance win, and a win in Class 3. As such, 14/1 looks generous and he makes the B ticket. That support ticket is completed by Northside Prince, for Alan Swinbank, who won this two years ago and has a fine record at the track. Three runs at Southwell have resulted in three second places, two of them by narrow margins, and a repeat would be good enough for our purposes today.

A – 6 (Slip Of The Tongue), 7 (Wadaa)
B – 1 (Northside Prince), 8 (Proud Times)

7.15 – Leg 6: We finish with the toughest race of the night, a big field seven furlong handicap. It pays to be on the speed here, and Poetic Belle and Sudden Wish are most likely to fill that role. Poetic Belle ran the worst race of her career here on her sole try two starts back and it would take a braver man than me to go with her at 33/1 this time. She might be worth a small e/w bet as her overall profile is good and, if she can get an easy lead, could run well. But not on these tickets.

Sudden Wish has a much obvious chance, and price, but she is drawn in stall 14 (Poetic Belle in 12), and it might be hard to tack across to lead from there.

Queen Flush is drawn in 5, and is stepped up two furlongs, racing over a trip beyond five furlongs for the first time in eleven previous career starts. There’s an obvious stamina doubt there, especially if asked to lead against other pace pressers, so she’s overlooked.

The presence of a John Butler horse doesn’t help. These are always short prices early in the day, because the gamble is feared, and often drift alarmingly on course when it becomes apparent that today is not the day. I couldn’t recommend Lilly White on that basis, though she is bred for the job and ran all right last time.

Coach Montana might be worth a try. Jane Chapple-Hyam’s lad has been running well, is drawn one, has a prominent racing style and has won at Wolverhampton (never raced here). He ought to get in the shake up at some point. Nonaynever won here last time but his overall form and reliability is lamentable, and he’s opposed.

Viennese Verse is much more interesting, having been in the thick of it until a furlong out over a furlong further last time, and his trainer, Henry Candy, is both a shrewdie and in good form.

I’m looking for a result here, and will take a chance of a late blowout.

A – 1 (Sudden Wish), 3 (Viennese Verse), 8 (Coach Montana)

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Just A’s – 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 3 = 48 bets

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Southwell placepot picks

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