Stat of the Day, 27th August 2013
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, so it’s fair play and full marks to those of you who took the E/W option yesterday as our selection Robert The Painter was 2nd at 15/2.
Our mount got out well enough and tracked the leaders, before taking the lead in the penultimate furlong and looked set fair to land the spoils. Unfortunately the 9yr old race specialist Osteopathic Remedy turned back time and defied his mark of 90 to take this race for the fourth time.
But they do say that if at first you don’t succeed, you should try and try again and with that in mind we’re staying put for the…
Where I’m going to use the same two sets of stats from yesterday. If you recall, each of the two stats I’m going to open up have a common denominator and that is that the horse must have won over this course and distance in the past AND it must have won last time out, wherever it ran. In other words, I want a horse in some kind of form with previous knowledge of this track.
The figures quoted below now include our losing bet from yesterday, plus Richard Fahey’s Supplicant who also fit both criteria yesterday and was a winner at Even money (ie too short for us here)
In the last three seasons (inc. 2013), such horses returning to Ripon have a 21.05% strike rate, via 8 winners from 38 with level stakes profits of 12.63pts (+32.5% ROI). All 8 winners came from the 31 runners priced at 11/1 or under, giving a respective strike rate of 25.8% and the profits rise accordingly to 20.63pts, or a more palatable 66.5% of stakes. Even, the safety first route of backing them E/W has made 23.5pts at SP from those 31 runners priced below 12/1.
The change today is that we’re looking at the Richard Fahey stable and his horse, Khalice.
In the last three seasons, Mr Fahey has a 13 from 52 record (25% SR) with horses who won last time out and are being sent back to a track where they have previously won over course and distance. This 1-in-4 ratio has helped generate a modest 5.03pts profit, but a return of 9.5% of stakes is better than either a slap in the face and what the banks would give you. On its own, that stat isn’t (in my opinion, anyway!) strong enough as a criteria for SotD, but is perfectly fine when used to complement/supplement another stat.
We can, however still refine that last stat to our advantage, when we consider that I rarely select a win only bet for SotD at odds of over 6/1 (yesterday was, admittedly, one of those rare occurrences though and it really should have been an E/W bet!). That record I quoted of Richard Fahey having 13 winners from 52 looks far better with horses priced below 6/1, where has had 12 winners from 35 ( 34.3% SR) for profits of 11.35pts. This return of 32.4% is far healthier than the 9.5% above and is also more in line with our own SotD expectations/achievements.
So, what of Khalice? Well, this 2yr old bay filly has raced on four previous occasions and showed lots of promise on debut, when 2nd in a Class 5 Maiden over 6 furlongs at Pontefract where she was beaten by Milly’s Secret who reopposes today, but will struggle to repeat that victory, as Khalice encountered trouble in running and is also 6lbs better off at the weights today.
Our selection was then well beaten in her next two races: hampered at the start at Hamilton, before running out of steam trying to play catch up and then looked out of her depth in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury just over 5 weeks ago. That was, of course, a Class 2 event and big step up for her, as she finished in mid-division. She then returned to Class 5 action for her latest outing here at Ripon, where she broke her duck and landed a Class 5 Maiden on Good to Soft ground over today’s course and distance.
The fact that she was sent to Newbury tends to suggest that the yard think she’ll be a better quality horse in the future and she shouldn’t be over exerted by stepping up to Class 4 today
She was 3/1 fav for that course and distance victory and she’s likely to be popular in her bid to double up here this afternoon. The markets are pretty uniform with 7/2 or 4/1 BOG being the most common prices. With that in mind, it’s a 1pt win bet for me.
I’ve just managed to back Khalice at 9/2 BOG with Coral, but to see what your preferred outlet are offering, simply…
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