Stat of the Day, 28th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2013

We felt the benefit of perseverance as we reused a set of stats that got us a 15/2 runner-up on Monday to land ourselves a 9/2 winner yesterday. Khalice was very volatile in the markets and after I’d selected her at 9/2 BOG. Initially she shortened, before drifting out as far 13/2. She was, however, sent off as the 11/4 favourite and won quite cosily in the end.

She grabbed the rail and the lead very early in the race and then proceeded to make all. She needed a reminder or two as the pack closed in to within a half-length at the furlong pole, before running on well to win by a couple of lengths whilst still pulling away. I know some of you managed to get on at 6/1, some even managed the 13/2, but it’s officially a very welcome 4.5pts profit from our fourth winning bet in the last week.

We’re still slightly down for the month as a whole and I’ve four chances left to correct that starting today in the…

5.50 Southwell

Where Kingscombe is currently available at 6/1 BOG with both Paddy Power and Coral.

This 4yr old USA-bred grey is trained by Linda Jewell, who is very profitable to back here at Southwell. Despite her 9 winners from 88 runners only showing a modest strike rate of 10.23%, I’m more interested in the excellent level stakes profits of 86.5pts from those races at SP. That ROI of 98.3% is good enough anyway, but just imagine what that could have been at early BOG prices!

Horses with the USA suffix to the name like Kingscombe seem to go particularly well here at Southwell. I’m guessing that this track is possibly the closest thing we have to the American dirt tracks, but that’s just my hunch. But whatever the reason the stats stand out for themselves.

USA-bred male runners aged between three and five years old are especially profitable to follow here at Southwell when racing at trips of a mile or shorter. Since the start of 2011, the record is 50 wins from 219 (22.83%) for profits of some 113.65pts at betfair SP (the closest approximation to BOG odds). This represents an ROI of 51.9%. Four year olds (like Kingscombe) were responsible for over half of that profit: 67.23pts (= ROI of 94.7%) via 16 winners from 71 (22.5% SR)

Kingscombe‘s overall form to date is patchy at best, in fact it’s pretty poor. From his 14 starts to date, he has won twice and has been unplaced in each of his other 12 races. He has performed particularly poorly on turf with his best result being a 6th place (from 9 runners!) at Chepstow. He does, thankfully, go better on the All-Weather with a record reading 61771 with him having a two from two record here at Southwell.

His 100% record here comes after winning over both 7f and a mile and if he’s in the mood, has every chance of extending the sequence. Based on course form and/or course and distance form alone, he’d be much shorter in the market but I think his poor run on turf is being reflected in the current odds available.

Nevertheless, I’m happy to back Kingscombe at 6/1 BOG with Coral, reinvesting some of yesterday’s winnings, I’m going win only again, but there’s enough in that price to take the safer E/W option if you prefer. Paddy Power are also offering the same odds, so I’d suggest that you…

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