Stat of the Day, 29th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2013

Nothing went right for us yesterday at all. Our cause wasn’t helped by the jockey, Steve Drowne declaring 2lbs overweight, but that wasn’t the reason our horse ran so poorly. He seemed to get out OK and got him self over to th rail just behind the leaders, but that was as close as he got all race.

He had to be ridden hard from a long way out, showed little/no response and trailed home last of the eight runners at an SP of 6/1: the same as we’d advised, although he did trade as low as 4/1 earlier in the day.

We’re off to “Leafy” today, as we tackle the…

5.10 Lingfield

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Which is a five furlong, Class 6  handicap featuring the Hughie Morrison-trained Josefa Goya.

Today will be only this horse’s fourth race, as she never competed as a two-year old and she makes her 2nd handicap start today after a win over today’s trip and two fourth placed finishes (at 5f and 6f): all three races were Class 5 contests and she drops down a Class today.

Hughie Morrison is very good at getting horses to win when dropped down a class. In the last three seasons, Mr Morrison has had 17 winners from 69 horses dropping down and priced at under 12/1. That 24.6% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 37.85pts, a return of almost 55%. The strike rate for horses 4/1 or under is over 28%.

Josefa Goya was a winner at Wolverhampton in her second race despite pulling hard (5f) and was a 6 lengths fourth on handicap debut at Beverley last time out. That was actually a very decent effort, considering she had to run from stall 10 of 10. The first two home were drawn in 3 and 2, but she has a much better draw today in 11 of 12.

The reopposing Friendship of Love was ahead of her in 3rd place that day, but our selection is 3lbs better off today and this allied with the better draw, should be enough to redress the balance with that one.

Our selection is expected to improve as time goes on, she’s a half-sister to the yard’s veteran sprinter Intrepid Jack, a multiple winner over 6 furlongs and if she doesn’t encounter the same traffic problems she faced at Beverley, she’ll be there or thereabouts today.

One last thing to consider is the interesting booking of Kieran Fallon today. Kieran can be a bit of a Marmite character, but I do like him and there’s no questioning his ability. Hughie Morrison doesn’t use Mr Fallon all that often and especially not if he didn’t ride the horse last time out.

From a stat taken from one of the bonus reports in Matt’s Winning Trainers service: Kieran Fallon has ridden just eight horses for Mr Morrison in the last three years that he didn’t ride last time out. He has however been successful on four of those eight horses for a level stakes profit of 8.96pts.

All eight horses were priced at under 4/1, as is Josefa Goya today. The best we can get is the 9/4 BOG currently widely available. My 1pt win bet is going with BetVictor today, but to see what your preferred bookmaker is offering…

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.10 Lingfield

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