Stat of the Day, 30th August 2013
Josefa Goya only managed to beat two of her ten rivals yesterday, but that doesn’t really tell the whole story. She was hampered twice in the race, once a furlong from the start and then again a furlong from the finish. Her momentum was broken on both occasions and although she probably still wouldn’t have won, such incidents didn’t help her or our cause. I should also add that Kieran Fallon (quite rightly, in my opinion) didn’t attempt to drive her home when the race (and the places) was well beyond her.
It’s just a 40 minute drive North West from Lingfield to see today’s runner in the…
Where Legends represents Sir Michael Stoute, whose yard is in very good form at present with 5 winners and 4 places from just 15 runners in the last week alone. Sir Michael also has a decent, if not stellar record here at Sandown where he has saddled nine winners from forty-six runners (19.6%) for profits of 10.62pts (+23.1% ROI) in the last two seasons. Seven of those winners have come from the twenty-eight runners priced under 6/1.
Today, I’d also expect Legends to go off at under 6/1 too, as this 3yr bay colt makes his handicap bow. The Stoute yard has a good record with 3yr old male horses making their handicap debut and since 2010 have had 18 such winners from 76 runners: a strike rate of 23.7% producing modest level stakes profits of 6pts (+7.9% ROI) when backing them blindly, but with runners priced under 6/1, that record improves to 17/53 (32.1%) for 14pts (+26.5% ROI):a far more palatable set of figures. It should also be noted that the record this season is five wins from eleven for 10.44pts!
Legends steps up in trip by two furlongs from his last maiden outing and stepping horses up in trip for their handicap debut is an often successful ploy by Sir Michael and his team. In fact, they have a 28.6% strike rate in the last three seasons employing this tactic. This is courtesy of eight winners from twenty-eight for profits of 6.76pts (+24.1% ROI). And tying in with our horse’s expected odds today, all eight of those winners came from the 18 runners priced under 6/1: a strike rate of 44.44% with the 16.76pts profit representing a return of 93.1% over stakes invested.
This horse showed plenty of initial promise when 4th of 11 over today’s course and distance on his racecourse debut, where he finished ahead of Poyle Thomas, a subsequent Class 3 winner. He tailed off in his second race, but that was over a mile and a half at Newmarket, which clearly looked too long for him, whilst his last run at Kempton saw him finish 3rd of 14 whilst staying on over what now looks an inadequate trip of the bare mile.
He showed enough in that last outing to suggest there’s scope for improvement today and he is expected to be aided by the extra two furlongs whilst not being too badly treated with an opening handicap mark of 75.
The best price on offer at present for our 1pt win bet on Legends is the 5/1 BOG with Coral and BetVictor, so I’ve had a piece of that, as I expect that to contract over the course of the day. You can, however, shop around and the easiest/best way to do that is to simply…
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