Stat of the Day, 1st September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2013

Close, but not close enough yesterday, I’m afraid. Our 11/1 E/W shot Minalisa attracted a fair deal of market support and was backed into an SP of just 15/2. Unfortunately she failed to spring from the stalls and keep up with the early pace and as a result had plenty (too much, it transpired) to do in the closing stages.

She did, however, make good headway in the final furlong and stayed on strongly with only the eventual runner-up York Glory finishing better than she did. It’s ajuat a pity that our run for the places came too late and from too far back. The end result was a 5th place finish, two lengths away from the money and another one shy of the winner.

August wasn’t a great month in truth, so I’m hoping to kickstart the new month with success in the…

3.30 Brighton

Now, I’m writing this quite early, as I’m leaving home at 6am to travel to a wedding from which I won’t be home until Monday morning. This means that tomorrow’s piece will appear, but it might be a little late, unless I can get some internet connectivity somewhere.

Anyway to matters in hand and this race sees Luca Cumani drop Soryah down a Class from 3 to 4 for this 10 furlong contest on Good to Firm ground (good in places). Mr Cumani has a very good record when he drops horses down a grade with 27 winners from 99 (27.3% SR) in the last three seasons. These 27 winners have generated level stakes profits of 27.4pts (+27.7% ROI).

Of those 99 horses dropped in class, 61 of them were popular enough in the market to be sent off at odds of 6/1 or under, producing 24 of the 27 winners for the yard. That 24/61 record is an excellent 39.3% strike rate with the 35.2pts profits made representing a 57.7% return on stakes. Incidentally, the record from those horses here at Brighton is 2 from 2 with winners in early June and early July of this year. Here’s hoping history repeats itself in early September!

Brighton has also been a pretty happy hunting ground for Luca Cumani, despite him not sending that many runners down here. In fact, he has only had 63 runners here since 2003, but 13 of them (20.6%) have won for profits of 14.8pts (+23.6% ROI) and the yard is 3 from 9 for 11.7pts (+130% ROI) here in the last 12 months.

Soryah was progressing nicely in three runs this summer (4th, 2nd, 1st) before flopping (3rd of 3 and well beaten) last time out at Ffos Las almost four weeks ago. She’d two good runs in Class 5 maidens (7f then 10.5f), before improving further when sent out in handicap company and winning at Epsom over today’s trip of 1m 2f on good to firm ground similar to what she’ll face today.

She’s still unexposed with only five starts to date and I’m happy to disregard that last outing at Ffos Las, which was all wrong for her. It was a Class higher than today, it was 2 furlongs longer and she seemed to flounder in the mud: she definitely needed faster ground that day, but she’ll get that here.

She’s 1/1 over this trip and 1/1 on good to firm ground and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her extend that record.

I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Soryah at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power, but I did write this shortly after midnight, so the prices may well have altered by the time you read this. In which case, I’d strongly suggest that you…

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