Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2013
A good start to the month for us yesterday, as Richard Hughes produced Soryah at just the right time, taking the lead at the furlong pole and pretty much getting first run on his opponents. Our horse seemed to win with a bit in hand and made us all 3.5points better off, the eventual SP of 11/4 once again highlighting the benefit of taking the BOG prices.
I’m hoping to secure back-to-back wins with a trip North of the Border for the…
As suggested yesterday, I’m a little later than normal with today’s selection, so I’ll keep it as brief as I can. (Plus my head’s hurting a little: too much free wine!)
Former Hamilton Course and Distance winners returning to this course on the back of win last time out have done particularly well in the last few years. In the last three (including this one!) seasons 16 of 69 such runners have won on their course return and this 23.2% strike rate has generated a healthy profit of 24.8pts (+35.9% ROI).
When analysing the odds of those winners, it comes out that the best prices to back at are in the 5/2 to 12/1 range, with 14 of the winners falling into that bracket. Those 14 winners come from 54 runners, a strike rate of 25.9% giving rise to profits of 34.2pts or 63.3% of stakes.
A second aspect to consider is the recent performances by horses trained by David O’Meara who won last time out and have CD next to their name. His record with such horses over the last three years is 13 winners from 51. A very creditable 25.5% strike rate for profits of 8.5pts or 16.6% of stakes. All 13 winners came from the 47 runners priced below 12/1 which slightly improves the strike rate to 27.7%, the profits to 12.5pts and the ROI up to a respectable 26.5%.
So, all we need now is a former C&D winner who won last time out and is also trained by David O’Meara! Step forward Omanome.
Omanome is a 2yr old bay filly who was progressing nicely in 6f maidens on good to firm ground, the best result of which was a narrow defeat here at Hamilton on her third outing. I’m happy to disregard her poor show in her next race at Ripon where she clearly was unsuited but the softness of the course.
She returned to Hamilton for her latest (and 5th overall) race where she won over today’s trip, staying on well under pressure and on similar good to firm ground as today’s.
She doesn’t seem to have any quirks or riding issues and does look straightforward enough. If kept handy today, I’d expect her to have enough late on to put this race to bed. She has, of course, been hit with a penalty for that C&D victory, but I’m not convinced that the 3lb rise will be enough to stop her.
The bookies aren’t too sure and this means we can put our 1pt win bet on Omanome at a very reasonable 7/2 BOG (widely available). I’ve reinvested some of yesterday’s bounty with Paddy Power, but for your pick of the bookies…
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