Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2013

No back to back winner yesterday, I’m afraid. Omanome got out sharply, headed for the rail and led the race for pretty much the first five furlongs of the 6f contest. He was aggressively ridden by Danny Tudhope and once headed near the furlong pole, was a spent force. He quickly dropped out of contention and finished back in 5th of the seven runners at the same 7/2 price we’d suggested earlier.

Pretty poor stuff on offer today, but we’re going to stay in Scotland to take a look at the…

5.30 Musselburgh

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Where I’m going to continue along the theme of highlighting course and distance winners. Musselburgh is another of those tracks that readily lends itself to such horses, especially if they were winners last time out. In fact over the last three seasons, 58 former C&D winners have returned to Musselburgh on the back of a win and have run here at odds of 7/1 or under.

In other words, these horses are quite fancied by the market, despite invariably carrying a penalty from their last run. Yet still, 15 (25.9% SR) of those 58 have gone on to secure the follow-up victory, producing level stakes profits of almost 26pts in the process, a return on investments of almost 45% and the record this season alone is 5 winners from 17 for 8.2pts.

Tracy Waggott runs two horses in this race today: Tuibama and our selection Captain Royale, who is bidding to land his third victory in five races.

He comes here on the back of a fairly comfortable win at Catterick last time out and is duly raised 6lbs in the handicap for that effort. That penalty doesn’t actually seem as onerous as it might initially sound and I’d still expect him to be able to deal with that and the market will probably agree with me and make him favourite here.

Stablemate Tuibama will also probably figure close to the head of the market in position, if not price, but this horse was well beaten by our selection in that Catterick contest and I’d expect more of the same today.

Captain Royale is no spring chicken, nor is he a stranger to the winners’ enclosure: this 8yr old has already won eight times on the turf from a career spanning 56 races to date (he’s also had 9 unsuccessful outings on A/W surfaces!) and he has proved very profitable to back, especially this season where his 2 wins (from 12 starts) have come at odds of 12/1 and 25/1 (last time out). Today’s jockey Barry McHugh was also on board on both occasions.

Today’s minimum trip of 5f is his preferred race length with a record of 6 wins from 27 at this distance and he’s 4 from 16 in Class 6 races at this trip too.

It’s not a great race today, but I do expect him to follow up that last win at Catterick and notch up a second C&D win here. The bookies seem to agree with me and have installed him as the 7/2 favourite with his nearest rivals priced up at odds of around 7/1 and 15/2.

The 7/2 BOG for Captain Royale is pretty widely available, so you can take your pick of the bookies. I’ve still got some of Monday’s winnings in my Paddy Power account, so that’s where my 1pt win bet is going, but as always, I heartily recommend that you…

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