Stat of the Day, 4th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2013

A nice 4/1 winner for us yesterday, as Captain Royale just about got home for us after a patient ride by Barry McHugh. Barry held the horse up for a late run and waited for a gap to appear inside the final furlong.

The eventual runner-up moved to one side allowing him through and Barry steered him home to score by a neck. In hindsight, the runner-up blundered by creating the gap, but the gods were shining on us this time (we’ve had plenty of narrow defeats!) and the extra half from the drift in the betting was quite welcome too!

A Class 5, 6 furlong Maiden for 2 yr olds awaits us today in the…

2.20 Lingfield

Where Jeremy Noseda runs Outback Traveller, my 11/4 selection who makes only his second appearance on a racecourse after finishing 4th at 16/1 on debut 11 days ago. He was unplaced that day, but not disgraced by any means, finishing just 3 lengths adrift of the 9/2 winner (and SotD pick!) Ghazi.

Jeremy Noseda’s horses regularly improve on their second run, especially when unplaced on debut, but not beaten out of sight ie finishing within 10 lengths of the winner. His record in the last three seasons with such horses is 16 winners from 43, that’s a strike rate of 37.2% generating level stakes profits of 22.4pts, or 52.1% of stakes invested. The vast majority (14 of them) of those 16 odds winners fell into the Evens to 7/1 or under odds range, where the stats read 14 winners from 30 (46.7%) for 32.2pts (+107.2% ROI).

Outback Traveller cost 92,000 gns and is closely related to quite a few winners, notably including his half-brother Monsieur Chevalier who won six times and made the frame twice from just 9 runs as a 2yr old, including victories in Listed company and a Group 3 success, ending that season on a mark of 109.

Our selection showed plenty of promise on debut at Newmarket, despite being unfancied (sent off at 16/1), that was over a similar 6f trip, but the going was good to soft that day. He’s expected to come on for having race experience as well as the natural progression Jeremy Noseda’s horses tend to show. It is also expected that, like his relatives, he’ll be better suited by today’s faster conditions.

His previous race was a Class 4 race and he drops down in grade today, this is something that the Noseda yard tend to have success with too.

In the last three seasons they have had 19 winners from the 71 runners dropped in class, a strike rate of 26.8% for modest profits of 9.7pts, a return of 13.6%. However, the market tends to be a good guide with these horses dropping down, as 17 of those 19 winners were priced at 9/2 or under.

Those 17 winners priced at 9/2 or under come from a sample size of just 38, an excellent 44.7% strike rate, showing decent profits of some 21.3pts or 56.1% of stakes.

Tellingly, a combination of the two stats ie horses dropping in class for their 2nd run and priced below 5/1 SP have won 7 out of 11 times: the 63.6% strike rate giving rise to profits of 14.2pts (+129.2% ROI).

So, with the expected progression and the slightly easier task in hand, I’m happy to place a 1pt win bet on Outback Traveller at 11/4 BOG. This price seems to be the norm this morning, so I’ll stick with Paddy Power and use some of yesterday’s winnings, but I recommend that you…

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