Stat of the Day, 8th September 2013
It was a relatively straightforward display of hurdle racing for Laudatory yesterday, as he secured his fourth course and distance victory in nine attempts. Our 3/1 shot was sent off as the 11/4 favourite and fully justified the tag as he made all to win comfortably in the end by around nine lengths and it could well have been more. It’s another 3pts in our kitty, as September has started well for us, with four wins this month already!
All-weather action from across the water today in the…
Yesterday I used a stat that I’d been researching regarding National Hunt horses being quickly turned out after coming back to winning form and the performance of Laudatory got me thinking about other codes of racing too.
It was then that I saw that applying the same rules to All-Weather racing was even more successful/profitable!
The rules were to look for a horse with three (or more!) consecutive unplaced finishes followed by a win and then turned out within a month of that return to form. I was only interested in horses at odds of between evens and 6/1 and in 2013 alone the all-weather has produced 43 winners from 143 such horses.
This strike rate of 30.1% has produced 49pts profit this year: a return of over 34% above stakes invested.
All of which brings me to today’s selection Diyala.
This 4 yr old bay filly showed very little (8450) in four races under Mick Halford’s care, but has shown considerable improvement for a switch to Gordon Elliott’s yard this year, especially in her last two outings stepping up in trip.
She finished strongly at Ballinrobe in 4th place, beaten by less than 2 lengths over 1m 6f and looking like she wanted more, before finally winning last time out (last Tuesday) at Musselburgh over today’s two-mile trip.
She won comfortably by 6 lengths on Tuesday (with plenty in hand) ahead of Musselburgh course and distance winner Jan Smuts and now comes here in good form and only carries the mandatory 5lb penalty, despite the easy win.
Diyala has run here in the past and despite not making the frame on that occasion, she did seem to handle the surface and the 4th place finish was actually her best effort in the opening five races of her career.
She doesn’t need to improve upon Tuesday’s performance to take this one, just a repeat of the same will suffice and I expect another bold showing this afternoon. The bookies will, unfortunately, probably be wise to her chances here and she might well go off a fair bit shorter than the 2/1 she was priced at over at Musselburgh.
Paddy Power had the best price on show this morning and we’ve got money there from yesterday, so I’m reinvesting 1pt on Diyala at 2/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but you can always…
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