Stat of the Day, 9th September 2013
Diyala ran well enough yesterday and despite being some way off the pace, she stayed on well to the finish. Unfortunately, the race had already been taken from her grasp by this point and we had to settle for a third place finish at 7/2, a good 5 lengths behind the winner.
It’s another gaelic mission today as we head from Ireland to Scotland for some chase action in the…
There’s not a great deal of useful/helpful stats around today, but I’ve found an angle in this one via the old horses for courses adage.
Scotch Warrior is today’s pick, based purely on his liking for this track (and trip!), so it’s likely to be a brief write-up this morning!
To date, Scotch Warrior has a reasonable record of five wins from sixteen contests to date. This is an excellent 31.25% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 24.4pts (+152% ROI) from backing him blindly and he’s 4/7 (57.14%) for 16.15pts (+231% ROI) when priced at 5/1 or under ie SotD territory!
All five of his wins have come from 14 attempts over larger obstacles and all were here at Perth from just ten runs and four of the five wins have been over today’s trip: with him having a record of 11112 over course and distance. He has also won three times from eight on good ground, which is also forecasted for today. His record over C&D on good ground is two from two.
He was beaten here by 2.5 lengths last time out by the re-opposing Sergeant Pink, but they now meet again with our selection 5lbs better off and this weight advantage allied to his recent form in general, especially over course and distance means that a 1 pt win bet on Scotch Warrior looks pretty good value at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor.
That 4/1 looks a little long to me and the other bookmakers seem to agree, as they’re mostly going 7/2 on this one. My advice would be to…
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