Stat of the Day, 10th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2013

Win or lose, I would have said that yesterday’s race was enthralling, particularly from the turn for home onwards. It eventually boiled down (as I’d expected) to a battle between our selection Scotch Warrior and Sergeant Pink, just as it was a little over three weeks ago.

That day Sergeant Pink was victorious by 2.5 lengths, but they met again with Scotch Warrior on 5lbs better terms and he certainly needed every ounce of it as jockey Callum Bewley just about got the horse in front in the shadow of the post for a nice 4/1 winners for us: the SP was 5/2!

Today’s fayre is little (if any!) better than yesterday’s offerings, but we’ve got one with a chance in the…

4.00 Redcar

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Once again, there’s nothing great going on via most of the stats angles I normally use, so it’s back to “horses for courses” again today, or track and trip to be more precise.

I’m backing Kiwi Bay today in this Class 4 handicap over a mile. This 8 yr old seems to prefer the one mile trip as his career record of 7 wins from 73 is improved to 5/33 (15.2%) for 7.2pts (21.7% ROI) at this distance.

Whilst those figures alone aren’t enough to justify his inclusion here, it’s worth noting that all five wins over a mile have come when there has been some support in the market for him. He has run over a mile at single digit odds 15 times, producing all 5 of those wins: a strike rate of 33.33% for profits of 25.2pts, or 168% of stakes.

He also has a fantastic record here at Redcar, winning five of his fourteen races at this track with that 35.7% strike rate generating returns of 20.7pts profit: an ROI of almost 148%, with a record of 4 from 11 (36.4%) over course and distance for profits of 18.5pts (+168% ROI) with all four C&D wins being priced at single digits.

Kiwi Bay‘s excellent record here is supplemented by the fact he looks very well handicapped today, now running off a mark of 77 in a Class 4 contest. He has, in the past, won a Class 2 race here of 89 and also has two Class 3 wins at this track off marks of 84 & 85. If running to his potential, he should have weight in hand today.

He seems to be coming into some form, having been very narrowly beaten into second place in two of his last three starts and despite not having won for over a year now, his last four wins have all been over today’s course and distance: the last of which was that Class 3 race off a mark of 85 on soft ground.

The fact he has won here on soft ground may well be a factor today, as I think the going may well catch a few of his rivals out and could well be the final piece in the jigsaw that gets him back in the winners’ enclosure.

He’s by no means a certainty here, but from a stats perspective, he’s the most likely to succeed. It’s a fairly big field for this one and you may want to take the safety-first E/W approach today, but I’m going win only with a 1pt win bet on Kiwi Bay at 11/2 BOG.

That price is quite widely available, but I’m going to use some of the winnings from earlier in the month that are still sitting in my Paddy Power account. If you prefer to use another firm. the easiest (and best!) way to see what they’re offering is to simply…

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