Stat of the Day, 11th September 2013
Kiwi Bay didn’t really give us any kind of run for our money yesterday, I’m afraid. He finished 10th of the 15 runners, a good dozen or so lengths off the winner. He chased the leaders to the furlong pole, but when more was needed, less was received. He weakened and faded quite badly late on and the drift in the market (we backed him at 11/2, he opened at 9/1 and had an SP of 8/1) proved to be correct.
We’re going to take a crack at the first race of the day today. Hopefully we’ll set the day up nicely with a win in the…
Horses running here at Doncaster over the same trip as they won on last time out and turned out quickly after that win (ie within 10 days) tend to follow up that win with another one here.
Whilst eight winners from thirty-nine runners over the last three years isn’t the largest of sample sizes, it does still represent a healthy strike rate of 20.5% and equally attractive (if not more so!) profits of some 32.85pts at Betfair SP. This equates to a return of over 84% of stakes invested.
There are two such runners here at Doncaster today and whilst the 14/1 shot Royal Bajan looks to have good E/W claims in the 5.15 race under Frankie Dettori, it is the Michael Bell-trained Finn Class who gets my vote.
Finn Class has run eight times in his debut season, winning three times and he has been in the first three home in each of his last five outings. He has been tried at a variety of distances from 5f up to a mile, but it would appear that today’s 7 furlongs suits him best. All three of his wins to date have been at this trip, where he holds a 100% record.
Today presents him with a couple of challenges regarding class and weight, but the rise in class is to be expected from a horse that looks to be very progressive and whilst he has been raised 6lbs in the weights for his recent exploits, the booking of Louis Steward means that this rise os more than negated by his 7lb claim and Louis has already secured 2 wins and 2 places from 7 rides at 7 furlongs on horses trained by Michael Bell.
I’m not convinced that Finn Class hasn’t got more to give over this trip and the ground should be of no concern either. If he thrives on the challenge of racing against better quality opposition, then he’s sure to give another good account of himself.
It’s not the easiest race to call and I’m going to take a safety-first approach today and as such, I’m going to place a 0.5pts E/W bet on Finn Class at 6/1 BOG. This price is available with Hills, Coral and Stan James at present. To take your pick of the bookies, simply…
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