Double Dutch, 13th September 2013
Well, we finally managed to secure our first double yesterday as both Mime Dance and The Lark scored at pretty short odds.
Thankfully, taking the BOG prices meant that we got a 7.29/1 return from that particular bet. Letting the bets run at SP would have meant a reduced return of 4.49/1, further highlighting the need t0 use these bookies.
The only blot on the day was the fall suffered by Seal of Approval and Hayley Turner in our second race, after the horse clipped the heels of Alta Lilea two furlongs from home.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Mime Dance : won at 15/8 (SP 10/11)
Needless Shouting : 3rd
The Lark: won at 15/8
Seal of Approval: fell
Trial to date:
7 winning selections from 30 = 23.33%
1 winning doubles in 8 days
P/L : -9.75pts (-62.9% ROI)
I’m well aware that one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but I’m hoping to repeat the feat today starting at tea-time in the…
This looks to be another two-horse race where the likeliest winner will be the 13/8 (Stan James) favourite Diamonds Return. David Pipe has turned this one back out quickly to capitalise on an easy enough win at Uttoxeter on Wednesday. He won there by just under three lengths, but was easing down and seemed to have plenty to spare. He’s still unexposed at this trip: Wednesday was first crack at it and whilst he won’t be 16/1 this time around, I expect him to win.
Of the remaining rivals, the biggest challenge is likely to come from Lost Legend, who seems to offer some value at odds of 11/2 (Hills). This one has had a decent 2013, winning three of his ten races with three other top three finishes to boot. Has won in both chase and hurdle events this year and grabbed a win late on at Worcester last time out. The extra furlong here today should hep him time his finish better, if nothing else!
The only potential fly in the ointment would be General Miller, but he’s not the force he used to be and will probably struggle off a mark of 130 here, provided he isn’t allowed to make all.
Another short priced (13/8 with BetVictor) favourite looks set to go in here, as Mistral Wind looks fair set to break her string of near misses (44442 in her five starts to date!). This isn’t a particularly strong contest and the way she ran last time out puts her head and shoulders above the rest of this field. She was beaten by half a length by the in-form Prospera who was completing her third win in four outings that day. More tellingly, Mistral Wind’s nearest challenger was a good 8 lengths back.
Of her rivals today, I like the look of Hattie Jacques as the one to cause the most problems. She is the only horse in this race to have won over today’s trip and comes here in good form, having broken her maiden status at Nottingham lat time out. There are some slight nagging doubts about whether she’ll handle this surface readily, but at odds of up to 6/1 in places, she offers excellent value as a back-up plan and I prefer her to Sunblazer, who although is consistent and drops in class, looks to have too much weight to carry and is unproven at the trip.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Diamonds Return / Mistral Wind @ 6.89 with BetVictor
Diamonds Return / Hattie Jacques @ 19.25 with Stan James
Lost Legend / Mistral Wind @ 15.75 with BetVictor
Lost Legend / Hattie Jacques @ 45.50 with Hills