Double Dutch, 16th September 2013
No double landed yesterday, despite Croquenbouche gamely holding on to win race 1 at a decent price of 9/2. He was driven out a couple of furlongs from home and stayed on well despite conceding weight to his nearest rivals.
The withdrawal of Reqaaba from race 2 halved our chances of a double and Space Artist failed to land a blow for us, but we at least had the consolation of a 2.25pt return from a single on Croquembouche, ensuring a small 0.75pts profit on the day. Mind you, that’s still a 50% ROI.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Croquembouche : won at 9/2
Tuscan Fun: unplaced
Space Artist: unplaced
Trial to date:
8 winning selections from 41 = 19.51%
1 winning doubles in 11 days
P/L : -13.00pts (-61.9% ROI)
It hasn’t started terribly well, but we’re only just over a third of the way through the trial and I’m hoping for a winning start to the week with these:
The bookies, the official ratings and our interactive racecard all say that this race belongs to Black Treacle and I’ve no reason to disagree. We’re not going to get rich on the 11/10 price currently on offer, but it’s good enough for a lead in to a double. He won a similar standard of contest to this one last time out at Ripon and has a record of 331241 in his short six-race career to date. He’s unlikely to be a world beater, but will win races at this level.
His main rival is likely to be the 15/8 (BetVictor) second favourite Princess Tamay. Although she hasn’t won any of her seven races, she has performed to a consistent level and has been racing in better quality (higher grade) races than this one. Although she’s tackling a fairly warm favourite, she stands every chance of breaking her maiden tag, courtesy of the 10lbs she’s getting here.
I find it very difficult indeed to look beyond another warm favourite here in the shape of Big Storm Coming. Although he’s only best priced at 5/4 in a thirteen runner handicap, he does look as close to a shoo-in as anything on offer today. He’s the only unexposed runner in the race and comes with the best form, having won over course and distance just 4 days ago. He has a 6lb penalty for that victory, but the way he put that race to bed suggests they’ll be raising him again very soon.
The only other runner with a recent victory is Father Fred, who is also lightly raced and comes here off the back of an emphatic win at Brighton a fortnight ago. I know that it was only a seller that he won, but he took it by almost four lengths and he was pulling further and further away at the close. Such is the expected dominance of the favourite here, we can get a massive 8/1 from BetVictor about our backup plan.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Black Treacle / Big Storm Coming @ 4.73 with BetVictor
Black Treacle / Father Fred @ 18.90 with BetVictor
Princess Tamay / Big Storm Coming @ 6.48 with BetVictor
Princess Tamay / Father Fred @ 25.92 with BetVictor