Double Dutch, 19th September 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 19th September 2013

Better news yesterday as Penitent’s 9/4 win (drifted from 7/4) coupled with Psychometry’s victory at 5/4 brought home a 6.32/1 double to alleviate some of the gloom that was hanging about us here.

Penitent made all and quickened nicely to put the race to bed quite early on and was a far more comfortable winner than the official distance of just over a length. Wentworth, however, was quite disppointing back in 5th of the 7 runners.

Psychometry, as expected, led Dancing Sands home in a 1-2 finish for us (the Exacta paid £5.90) and the 1.25 length margin of victory could have been far greater, if the horse and jockey had wanted it to be!

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Penitent : won at 9/4
Wentworth : unplaced
———————————
Psychometry : won at 5/4
Dancing Sands : 2nd at 4/1 (SP 11/4)

Trial to date:

12 winning selections from 51 = 23.53%
2 winning doubles in 14 days

Stakes: 27pts
Returns: 11.66pts

P/L : -15.34pts (-56.81% ROI)

We’re well aware that yesterday’s result doesn’t get us out of the woods, but hopefully we can back it up today with these:

2.10 Ayr:

Kommander Kirkup has the best bit of form of these here today, having finished runner-up to Astaire at York. That was a Class 3 maiden and Astaire only took that race by three parts of a length, before going on to record two more victories from three starts, including a Group 2 success in the Gimcrack last month.

I’m not suggesting that Kommander Kirkup is as good as that, but any replication of his debut run should be enough here at a best price of 11/8 BOG (generally)

The main challenge is set to come from 11/4 shot Ribbleton, whose yard has won this race twice in the last four years and who will relish the soft conditions underfoot, having been placed in both of his starts (both on soft ground) to date.

He’s a half-brother to Bathwick Bear, a 2 yr old winner at this 6f trip and was only narrowly beaten by a nose on debut at Carlisle (6f) before running equally well if not better when third at Thirsk last time out, despite not getting the best of runs.

8.40 Kempton:

Providing the hike in the weights (up 9lb) doesn’t prove too much, this race is Jazz Master‘s to lose. He has been consistently improving in his five handicap outings to date (52421) and comes here off the back of a comfortable course and distance win 12 days ago.

This Singspiel colt is related to Kayf Tara and Opera House and looks like there’s still plenty of progression left in him, especially based on his breeding. Like I said the weight is the main issue, but I still fancy Jazz Master to take this at odds of 15/8.

I’d expect the main rival here to be Autun, who has been knocking on the door of late, making the frame in all five handicap starts this year (32242) since getting off the mark at Nottingham last October. He always gives his backers a good run for their money and despite not getting much respite from the handicapper, looks set for another big run tonight.

He has suffered from the old problem of a rising mark without a win, but that will be reflected in the odds of 4/1 BOG, making Autun a value bet should Jazz Master not get home.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Kommander Kirkup / Jazz Master @ 7.14 with Stan James
Kommander Kirkup / Autun @ 11.90 with BetFred
Ribbleton / Jazz Master @ 10.80 with Paddy Power
Ribbleton / Autun @ 18.75 with Bet365