Sat TV Trends: 21st Sept 2013

Who’ll Be Kissing The Gold Cup on Sat?

It’s Ayr Gold Cup day up at the Scottish venue, while the C4 cameras also head to Newbury and Newmarket for LIVE races this Saturday – Andy Newton’s got all the key trends and stats…….

AYR (C4/RUK)

2.05 – William Hill – Bet On The Move Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4

10/10 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/10 – Aged 5 or younger
9/10 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/10 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Won at Listed or better class before
7/10 – Rated 109 or higher
7/10 – Won at least twice before (UK)
7/10 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
4/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Won by a filly or mare
3/10 – Winners from stall 2
3/10 – Ran at York last time out
3/10 – Won by Saeed bin Suroor
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4

2.40 – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 6f

10/11 – Aged 5 or younger
10/11 – Previous winners over 6f
10/11 – Carried 8-11 or more
9/11 – Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
9/11 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/11 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
8/11 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
8/11 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/11 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/11 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Carried 9-0 or more
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Winning Favourites
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/11 – Trained by David Nicholls
2/11 – Drawn in stall 8 to 20 (inc) – i.e winners were either drawn high or low
0/11 – Filly or mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 19/1

2.50 – Laundry Cottage Stud Firth of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 6f

10/11 – Finished 4^th or better last time out
10/11 – Had never raced at Ayr before
10/11 – Winning distance 1 length or further
9/11 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/11 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
9/11 – Had won once or twice before
10/11 – Previous winners over 6f
7/11 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
7/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Bryan Smart
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

3.30 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 6f

11/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Didn’t win their latest race
10/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
9/11 – Officially Rated 90-100
8/11 – Had won over 6f before
8/11 – Unplaced favourites
8/11 – Had 7 or runs that season
7/11 – Came from a double-figure stall
7/11 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (2) last time out
7/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/11 – Carried 9-2 or more
6/11 – Winning distance 1 length or less
6/11 – Had run at Ayr previously
4/11 – Trained by David Nicholls (won the race 6 times in all)
3/11 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/11 – Winning favourites (1 winning fav since 1980)
0/10 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just four winners aged 6 or older
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1

NEWBURY (C4/RUK)

1.50 –Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 1m3f5y

11/11 – Won over 1m2f previously
10/11 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/11 – Priced 9/1 or less
9/11 – Had 4 or more career wins
8/11 – Aged 5 or younger
8/11 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Raced 5 or more times that season
6/11 – Had won a Group race before
6/11 – Raced at Newbury before
5/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Favourites that won
3/11 – Race at York last time
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

2.20 –Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 6f8y

10/11 – Won from draw 5 or lower
9/11 – Raced 3 or more times
9/11 – Won over 6f previously
8/11 – Foaled in March or later
8/11 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
7/11 – Won exactly two races before
6/11 – Won by an April foal
5/11 – Favourites to win
4/11 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
3/11 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
3/11 – Won their previous race
2/11 – Trained by Richard Hannon
0/11 – Filly winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

2.55 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) CH4 1m2f6y

11/11 – Won from stall 7 or higher
10/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/11 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
8/11 – Won over 1m2f previously
8/11 – Won at least twice previously
8/11 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/11 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/11 – Won by a 7 years-old
7/11 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/11 – Raced 5 or more times that season
6/11 – Returned a double-figure price
6/11 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
5/11 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/11 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/11 – Won their last race
1/11 – Winning favourites (joint)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

3.30 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 5f34y

11/11 – Raced four or more times that season
10/11 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/11 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
10/11 – Came in the top 3 in their last race
9/11 – Aged 5 or younger
9/11 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
8/11 – Won a Listed or Group race before
7/11 – Won over 5f previously
7/11 – Won 4 or more times
5/11 – Previous Group race winners
4/11 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc last two winners)
3/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Mare winners
3/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10.6/1

NEWMARKET (C4/RUK)

2.30 – £100,000 Tattersalls Millions Fillies´ Median Auction Stakes Cl2 6f CH4

3 previous runnings
0/3 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race 12 months ago
Clive Brittain is just 4 from 66 with his 2 year-olds here Jockey Richard Kingscote is 3 from 9 riding 2 year-olds here (+£32)
Luke Morris is 0-from-16 riding 2 year-olds here
David Probert is 0-from-16 riding 2 year-olds here

3.05 – £100,000 Tattersalls Millions Median Auction Trophy Cl2 6f CH4

1 previous running
Winning favourite 12 months ago
Richard Hannon won the race 12 months ago

3.55 – Betfred Cesarewitch Trial (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 2m2f

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Had 5 or more runs that season
4/4 – Aged 5 or younger
4/4 – Carried 8-13 or less
4/4 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
2/4 – Had won 3 or more times before
2/4 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
2/4 – Ran at York last time out
2/4 – Finished third or better last time out
2/4 – Had won over 2m or further before
0/4 – Winning favourites

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays