Stat of the Day, 21st September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2013

Once again, I turned to Saeed bin Suroor for our daily selection and once again he came up with the goods. Tawhid clearly travelled the best of the bunch and was kept covered up before being sent off for home a furlong out.

He quickened markedly and soon went from about fifth to first and although he wandered a little on hitting the front, the cheekpieces seemed to help, as he scored by a good two and a half lengths at 15/8 (considerably shorter than the 5/2 BOG we took).

I’m hoping for more good news from tonight’s…

8.50 Wolverhampton

Where Platinum Proof makes his first start for trainer David O’Meara after a very modest five-race career out of John Berry’s yard.

In fact, modest is possibly over egging the pudding as his sequence of results was 12/12, 11/12, 4/9, 10/11 and 10/11. His best run of the five is clearly the 4th place he achieved on his only trip to Wolverhampton over tonight’s course and distance. He was only beaten by two lengths on that occasion, a far better result than the combined 67 lengths margins of defeat from his other four outings.

So far, you’re probably not sold on this one just yet, but I have three separate stats to back up the selection and although each stat isn’t fantastic in isolation, they do back each other up to suggest that Platinum Proof might just take this poor-looking race tonight.

1. He runs after being off the track for almost 4 months and David O’Meara has a good record with such horses. In the last three years David’s runners coming back from a break of 3 to 8 months have won 23 (19%) of their 121 comeback races for a level stakes profit of 58.15% or 48.1% of stakes.

2. Since 2010, horses making their debut for him after having previously competed for another trainer have a 28.6% strike rate when priced at 8/1 or under for that yard debut. That 28.6% strike rate comes via 24 winners from 84 runners for profits of 45.45pts, an ROI of 54.1%.

And no. 3 is perhaps a little more spurious, but today is a Saturday and David O’Meara has a good record in Saturday handicaps. There a small group of trainers who seem to perform really well on Saturdays which at first might sound ridiculous. But when you consider, many horses are owned by individuals/groups who work for a living and can only see their horses run at weekends, plus some trainers like to have a winner on telly etc, it might not be so ludicrous.

In fact David’s record is 61 winners (16.1%) from 380 runners priced at a maximum of 20/1 (I want to eliminate the no-hopers!), producing a very healthy 113.64pts profit, equivalent to 29.9% of stakes invested.

All in all, the stats suggest a decent effort tonight, and if the horse can reproduce his best run off a very lowly mark of 57 (which is 6lbs lower than the mark he was allocated after that 4th place finish over C&D), then there’s a good chance that a 1pt win bet on Platinum Proof might just be a good thing.

6/1 BOG seems to be generally available, I’ve placed my bet with BetVictor, but please feel free to…

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