Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2013

We’ll never know how good a selection Jayandbee was yesterday, as his race lasted around 30 seconds! He was tracking the leaders in about 4th place when he appeared to jump into the back of another runner and deposited his jockey to the ground.

He’d attracted support all day too, being sent off as the 11/8 favourite, almost 40% shorter than our advised 9/4, meaning there were quite a few disappointed punters out there.

Anyway, I’ve heard that it’s a long way to our next port of call, so let’s set off early for the…

5.15 Tipperary

For a pretty weak-looking fillies’ maiden at a track where trainer John Oxx has a remarkable record. Over the last 10 years (no recent flash in the pan to distort figures), you’d be well in profit by blindly backing his horses here, despite him only averaging around 13 runners per year at this track.

His 10 yr record here is 43 winners from 138 winners, a 31.2% strike rate earning his followers 74.4pts, an ROI of 53.9%. That’s an excellent return, especially without filtering out any runners. More recently, he has sent fewer horses here, but has seen even better results, maybe he has become more selective of late?

For the 2011/13 period, he has sent just 21 runners here, but nine (42.9%) have gone on to win, returning level stakes profits of 35.2pts (+167.8% ROI) and he is 5/6 for 22.3pts in the last two seasons. In fact his last dozen runners here have finished as follows: 121116111711.

John actually has two runners here today: Abu Nayef (currently 12/1) isn’t without an E/W chance in the preceding handicap at 4.45, but I feel the yard’s best chance of a winner comes in the last race of the day, where we’ll see Roman Romance attempt to get off the mark at her fourth attempt.

This is, as I said earlier, not the greatest race on earth and it probably won’t take anything special to win it and Roman Romance at least comes into this race with the benefit of having two decent enough runs at this stamina-sapping (for a maiden anyway!) trip of 12.5 furlongs. She stayed on well in both of those races to finish third and fourth, but wasn’t disgraced in either.

She’ll probably need further in time, but her improvement in her three starts to date makes this look like her best opportunity so far to break her duck. If the form of her previous outings pans out today, then she holds an edge over two of the three horses ahead of her in the market, whilst the favourite Teocht has been disappointing and is already beginning to look overexposed at this level..

A quick check on the market shows BetVictor offering an attractive 13/2 BOG, so it’s the coward’s way out for me today with a 0.5pt E/W bet on Roman Romance, but you really should…

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