Double Dutch, 24th September 2013
They say it isn’t over until the fat lady sings. Well, she’s been standing in the wings gargling and clearing her throat as I’ve stumbled my way through 19 days of this trial so far.
However, I caught a break yesterday and some welcome respite as the selections conspired to give us a double at 8.625/1, which doesn’t get me out of the mire just yet, but it does give some renewed hope at least.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Stars : won at 7/4
Hopes N Dreams: Won at 5/2
Colonel Mak: 3rd
Trial to date:
17 winning selections from 69 = 24.64%
3 winning doubles in 19 days
P/L : -21.06pts (-56.92% ROI)
As I said, it’s a step in the right direction, but hardly a huge stride. I’m going to need a hell of a run over the next 10 days or so to get this into profit Hopefully yesterday was the start of a recovery mission, that I can continue today with these:
Neston Grace was actually on my shortlist for Stat of the Day, but she fell below my lowest odds cut-off point for that service. She comes here with a terrific record of three wins from five, including a course and distance victory last time out. She’s 2/2 on good to firm ground and has won her only start at Class 4 level (that was also LTO). Only two horses of the seven running here have won over this distance and she’s the only one to have won at this track.
Neston Grace would be my first choice and she’s currently best priced at 2/1 with Stan James.
I’m not sure why Top Totti is as short as 7/4 in the market, but she would be my alternate anyway, as the only other horse in the field to have actually won a race! She’s related to Mighty Man and ran really well when winning and finishing second at Chepstow & Ludlow respectively in April/May. she was disappointing at Aintree last time out , but a drop in trip and firmer ground might just help her today.
Bold And Free is an interesting runner here, having finished third last time out in a Class 4 claimer at Sandown 11 days ago. He drops down a Class here and runs on his much preferred good to firm surface for a yard pretty adept at dropping horses down to win. He’ll like the trip and the going and as such looks a decent enough prospect at 7/4 generally (15/8 in places).
Assizes is the most likely fly in the ointment today, although he has been disappointing of late. He was, however 3rd in a reasonable Class 4 handicap at Chester just three starts ago over a trip just a half furlong shorter than today. That race was on good to soft ground, but his solitary win to date has been on a quicker surface like todays. This isn’t a very good race and any return to that Chester form would probably be enough to take this at a best price of 5/2 (Stan James)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles all as follows:
Top Totti / Bold And Free @ 7.92 with Hills
Top Totti / Assizes @ 9.63 with Stan James
Neston Grace / Bold And Free @ 8.29 with SkyBet (non-BOG) or 7.92 BOG generally
Neston Grace / Assizes @ 10.50 with Stan James