Double Dutch, 25th September 2013
These doubles are a bit like waiting for a bus, it would seem. We waited for what seemed an eternity between successful bets and then, all of a sudden we get two in two days: a double double, if you like.
Top Totti took advantage of a couple of late jumping errors by Neston Grace, who had looked the better of the two until 2 out, whilst Bold And Free absolutely bolted home, scooting clear by some nine lengths or so.
This gave us another short-ish double at 7.92 from Hills, but still better than the 5.91 paid at SP, further highlighting the benefit of the early BOG prices.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Top Totti : won at 7/4 (SP 5/4)
Neston Grace: 3rd
Bold And Free: Won at 15/8 (SP 13/8)
Trial to date:
19 winning selections from 73 = 26.03%
4 winning doubles in 20 days = 20.00%
P/L : -19.10pts (-48.97% ROI)
That’s another nudge in the right direction for us and I hope to continue the recovery mission by aiming for the treble double (or is it a double treble? :D) with the following pair of races:
On paper, there seems to be little to separate Jo’Burg and Al Muheer, but I do have a slight preference for the former. Both of these should be far too good for this grade of race.
Jo’Burg has already won twice over this course and distance in handicap company and has been competing in a higher grade than this. His last outing at Class 5 level was a victory at Doncaster and he ran pretty well last time out in a Class 3 0-95 handicap at Carlisle, suggesting there’s still a fair amount of ability there.
Al Muheer was fourth last time out at Thirsk, staying on over 7f and he too takes a considerable drop in class to run here. He was only beaten by a couple of lengths that day and the firmer ground is sure to help his cause here. A mark of 81 looks workable too, as he was running off 87 just a month ago.
This pair are rated 7lbs and 6lbs better than their nearest rival and I expect Jo’Burg and Al Muheer to fill the first two places. The bookies also agree that there’s little between them, as BetVictor have them at 9/4 and 5/2 respectively.
This looks like a three-horse race between the three horses at the head of the market and the one I’m discarding is the likely favourite Formal Bid. There’s nothing wrong with him and he has his chances, but I think he’s too short at 15/8 and I have more reasons to like It’s A Man’s World and Outrageous Request in this one.
Despite having to lug 12 stone around today (fortunately Garry Lavery can claim 10lbs back), It’s A Man’s World is my pick here. He has been very impressive of late with back to back victories, including a course and distance win last time out. He won those two contests by a combined margin of 19 lengths and he wasn’t exactly ridden out to a finish in either. The official distances could easily have been double that 19 lengths.
I know he’s up in weight here and will need a career best run to score again, but he’ll still be difficult to beat, especially if coming here in the same mood as we’ve seen this last month. Another run like those last two could well make a mockery of the 3/1 on offer from both Paddy Power and BetVictor
If, however, the weight does paid to his chances, my backup plan is regular Perth visitor Outrageous Request, who won over course and distance here at a higher grade than this at the end of July. He likes to dictate matters from the front and if allowed an early lead, might prove difficult to peg back in the latter stages.
His handicap form is robust and consistent, if not spectacular and his knowledge of this course will help today, as he bids to upset the odds with a victory at 5/2.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles all as follows:
Jo’Burg/ It’s A Man’s World @ 13.00 with BetVictor
Jo’Burg/ Outrageous Request @ 11.38 with Bet365, Ladbrokes or BetVictor
Al Muheer/ It’s A Man’s World @ 14.00 with Paddy Power and/or BetVictor
Al Muheer/ Outrageous Request @ 12.25 with Paddy Power and/or BetVictor