Stat of the Day, 25th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2013

Western King blew a bit hot and cold yesterday on his way to a third place finish as the 7/2 favourite. We’d taken 5/1 in the morning, so there was no scope for an E/W bet really, so it’s another point lost, but we’re still in good shape for the month.

Western King was held up for much of the race and then seemed to struggle along for a while before making a renewed effort two fences from home. He stayed on well enough, but didn’t have the pace to keep up with the front pair who beat him by 6 lengths or so.

Teesside is the destination today as we tackle the…

2.40 Redcar

Which is a Class 6 Nursery over a mile on good ground, featuring the grey filly Mitcd, who runs out of Richard Fahey’s yard and will be ridden today by 5lb claimer George Chaloner. She comes back today after a break of almost 12 weeks since a disappointing run at Haydock, albeit at a level three classes higher than today!

The break is sure to have done her good, as Mr Fahey’s runners tend to come back and go well after time away from competition. In the last three seasons he has saddled up 60 winners (15.9% SR) from 378 runners who had just had a break of two to eight months off the track. Those winners amassed 114.7pts profit in the process, an ROI of 38.3%.

I appreciate that a two to eight month time span can be a little vague, so if we narrow the gap down to those runners in the lat three seasons coming back off a break of two to three months, we lose almost 80% of the runners, but are left with 12 winners from 79 and a very similar strike rate of 15.2%. However, the ROI has increased to 57.1%, courtesy of the 45.1pts profits to level stakes.

Nine of those twelve winners were priced at 12/1 or under, where the figures are 9/44 (20.5%) for 27.4pts (+61.5%) profit. All of which suggests that the break should do Mitcd more good than harm.

Her weight is helped today by the placing of 5lb claimer George Chaloner in the saddle for this one and Richard Fahey is one of those shrewd trainers when it comes to using claiming jockeys to take a bit of weight off a runner. In fact, he has used the services of this 5lb claimer on 56 occasions this season, yielding a dozen winners at a strike rate of 21.4% and producing profits of 28.4pts at level stakes, a return of 50.7% over stakes invested. that should help allay any fears about using this jockey here.

As for Mitcd herself, she showed initial promise in a couple of 6f maidens at this Class 6 level and then up a grade. She was then asked to compete at Class 3 level over 7 furlongs for her nursery debut, and she found it quite tough, coming home last of the 7 runners at Haydock.

Despite the poor finishing position, she wasn’t disgraced that day, as less than 10 lengths separated the whole field and whilst Mitcd has been resting, the horses who finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th have all gone on to win since. The 5th placed horse, Jive has also subsequently run well to finish second, beaten by just a neck at Lingfield.

This race looks an easier task on paper and her breeding suggests she’ll relish a further step up to today’s one mile trip and she may well want further in time: her sire is the excellent Mastercraftsman who was a multiple Group 1 winner at this trip, including the 2009 Irish 2,000 Guineas, whilst her dam Halicardia never finished outside the first three home in her short six-race career, including wins at 7f and a Listed success at 1m2f.

I’m not saying she’ll be that good, but her breeding does suggest she should be a decent sort at the right trip. She won’t be favourite today, that honour will go to Please Let Me Go, who was actually seven lengths behind Mitcd at Hamilton in May and thanks to our jockey’s claim the favourite is a pound worse off today.

At 8.00 am, only Bet365 had a market on this race, and they were offering 6/1 BOG. At that price and 1/4 odds for a place, you could definitely go E/W on this one. However, I’m looking to capitalise on what has been a decent month for SotD, so my call is 1pt on Mitcd to win at 6/1 BOG with Bet365.

You can, of course, choose to wait until the market has fully formed, before you…

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