Stat of the Day, 26th September 2013
Mitcd was very disappointing all round yesterday. She drifted out from our advised 6/1 to an SP of 8/1 and never featured. In fact she only beat one other runner home.
Little point dwelling on a poor result, as we head south down the A1 for a reunion with some familiar names/faces in the…
For the opening race on the card, a twelve-runner, Class 4 maiden for two-year olds. Only four of the entrants have raced before (a total of five runs between them) and Torchlighter’s second place at Yarmouth (beaten by a neck) eight days ago is the only discernible piece of form.
As such, he is highly likely to be set off as favourite, but I’m going to oppose him with the unraced My Target, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and ridden by Mickael Barzalona.
We’ve turned to this trainer/jockey combination to good effect in the past, but it’s not the combo that forms the backbone of the stats behind today’s pick, as they have only combined twice at Pontefract in the past.
Saeed Bin Suroor, however, has an excellent record at this track despite not overloading it with runners. He has had 19 winners from the 64 horses he has sent here prior to today for a strike rate a shade under 30% and profits of 9.36pts (+14.63% ROI) have been recorded at all odds.
All 19 winners were priced below 8/1, ideal for SotD purposes (:D) and came from just 55 runners, a strike rate of 34.6% for profits of 18.36pts, a return of just over a third of any stakes invested.
Saeed is of course well-known for his ability to get two-year olds out and winning on debut, as a record of 34 wins from 134 debutants over the last three seasons has shown. That’s just over a quarter of all his two-year old debutants going on to win at the first time of asking, yielding a more than respectable ROI of 27.4% via 36.7pts profit at level stakes.
Without filtering those results down too far, we can simply impose a 12/1 cut off point, which rids us of 10 losing bets, moving the figures to 34/124 (27.4% SR) for 46.7pts (+37.7% ROI).
One last set of numbers to throw in the mix is that Saeed bin Suroor hasn’t sent any two-year olds to Pontefract since 17th October 2011, but in the preceding three seasons (ie 2009/11) he had four winners from the dozen he did send.
There’s very little to tell you about the horse, My Target, himself, as he’s never raced before. I can, however, tell you that he is a half-brother to Questing, who has won three Group 1 contests in the USA and also won on debut and is out of Cape Cross from a dam (Chercheuse) who was herself a winner in Listed company over both today’s 6f trip and also at 7f.
Current best BOG price is 11/4 with BetVictor, but 5.0 is available on the Betfair exchange, so I’d advise you to…
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