Double Dutch, 27th September 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th September 2013

We got off to a flyer yesterday as Tender Emotion justified favouritism to land race 1 quite comforably by 3.25 lengths, with Flora Medici dead heating for 3rd/last place of the 4 runners.

This meant we’d still two chances going into the later contest, with 1.31pts staked on each of our two selections. Unfortunately, Abundantly was withdrawn and then the warm 10/11 favourite (we’d taken 13/8!) The Wizard of Aus looked set to bring us a useful 5.86/1 double, as he travelled really well for 11 of the 12 furlongs.

But when push came to shove and he was headed, he had nothing to give in return and faded quickly back to finish 4th, defeated by three lengths overall.

We did, of course get our 1.31pts back from the non-runner, but still endured a small loss on the day.

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Tender Emotion : won at 13/8 (SP 5/4)
Flora Medici: DH 3rd (4 ran!)
The Wizard of Aus: u/p
Abundantly: non-runner

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Trial to date:

20 winning selections from 80 = 25.00%
4 winning doubles in 22 days = 18.18%

Stakes: 42.5pts
Returns: 21.21pts

P/L : -21.29pts (-50.09% ROI)

We’ve managed to lose half of our stakes to date and a rapid turnaround is needed with a trip to HQ for these:

3.15 Newmarket:

Rizeena is the class horse here having enjoyed a fantastic juvenile season with a record of 511121 with victories at Class 4, Listed, Group 2 and finally in the Group 1 Moyglare almost 4 weeks ago. She has gradually stepped up from 5f to 7f and they she won last time out at The Curragh suggests that the extra furlong today on her first crack at the mile shouldn’t be an issue. She’s currently only 10/1 for next year’s 1,000 Guineas over a mile and trainer Clive Brittain has described today’s race as “a sort of Guineas prep”

She should be too good for any of her rivals here this afternoon and it’s no surprise to see her on offer at around 6/4, although Stan James are at 7/4.

The main challenge should surely come from Godolphin and Ihtimal in particular, who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Groups 3 and 2 level, but has to step up in class today. She has, however, already competed and won over today’s trip and also has the benefit of having had two runs here at Newmarket, albeit on the July course. The bookies tend to agree with my assumption that she’s the likeliest challenger, as she’s best priced at 9/4 with the 3rd fav being as long as 7/1!

5.30 Newmarket

This isn’t quite in the same league as the Group 1 battle above, but it’s an interesting contest nevertheless. It’s one that I can’t see going to anything one of the two at the head of the market. And to be honest there’s little to separate Aegaeus and Roseaceous, but if pushed I’d have a slight preference for the latter.

Aegaeus took advantage of a combination of the gift of an easy lead allied to an enterprising piece of tactical riding from jockey Ryan Moore (on board again today) to score by 4 lengths at Kempton (12f) last time out. He hit the front early and made all, but he slowed the pace right down, before kicking for home 3f out and getting first run on the pack who were unable to catch him.

He stayed on well that day and despite a drop back in trip (he has won over 10f in the past) the bookies fancy him to follow up with another here today at a best price of 9/4. However, Roseaceous will have plenty to say about that. She gets a very useful weight for age allowance from the older horses and she runs off her last mark of 80 ahead of a 3lb rise for her last effort at Ffos Las.

This means that, as well as the allowance she’s getting, she’s also another 3lbs well in at the weights and that could prove decisive, especially after the way she finished last time out. She stayed on really well on heavy ground and was gaining on the well backed favourite with every stride and as the line approached she was within half a length of victory. Any repeat of that run coupled with her effectively running at a weight 6lbs lower than Aegaeus (yet off the same mark of 80) should be rewarded with a Roseaceous win here at odds of around 3/1.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles all as follows:
Rizeena / Aegaeus @ 8.52 with Stan James
Rizeena / Roseaceous @ 10.48 with Paddy Power and/or Stan James
Ihtimal / Aegaeus @ 9.75 with Stan James, BetVictor & Hills
Ihtimal / Roseaceous @ 13.00 with Betfred

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