Double Dutch, 28th September 2013
Yesterday wasn’t very good at all, if I’m honest. Yes, Rizeena finished a couple of lengths ahead of Ihtimal as expected, but nobody expected 28/1 shot Chriselliam to stay on as she did and take the race in the final half furlong.
This meant that the second race was largely irrelevant and that’s probably just as well really. Roseaceous was withdrawn from the contest earlier in the afternoon and the 11/8 favourite Aegaeus could only finish 7th of the 8 runners, some 70 lengths or so behind the winner.
Just a poor day all round!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Rizeena : 2nd
Aegaeus: 7th of 8
Trial to date:
20 winning selections from 83 = 24.10%
4 winning doubles in 23 days = 17.40%
P/L : -23.29pts (-52.34% ROI)
I’m having another crack at a Group 1 race today along with a very contrasting Class 4 Novices Hurdle!
This race must surely centre around the two at the head of the market, Sky Lantern (9/4 with Betfred) and Elusive Kate (3/1 with Bet365 & Hills), but I said that yesterday, so beware a 28/1 flyer! Of these two here, I prefer Elusive Kate to Sky Lantern.
Sky Lantern has beaten Just The Judge three times already this season and Elusive Kate holds Duntle on past form, leaving the two main protagonists as our selections. Elusive Kate beat Sky Lantern here in July (Falmouth ) over today’s trip, albeit on the July course. Elusive Kate prevailed by just a neck that day, but she’s five pounds better off at the weights today and that should prove to be the difference, plus this is more likely to be a tactical affair, playing to the strengths of both horse and jockey William Buick.
On paper, Spirit of Shankly is the best horse in the field, but he has been beaten at odds on in his last two races. That includes getting turned at 1/6 here last time out, back in March. It has since been reported that not only did he not cope with the soft ground, but that he’d also broke a blood vessel.
He’s back on favoured ground today and any sign of the form that saw him finish just three parts of a length behind Hawkhill (runs in the 2.15 race today) in Listed race at Kempton, should be plenty to take this at fairly skinny odds again (5/4 BOG generally). The fact that he’s receiving bundles of weight from the main rivals is sure to help too.
Of the rest, I’d say Benefit Cut was the danger, a previous course and distance winner who also won last time out. He will have to improve some to beat the favourite, but if he reappears in the same mood as he finished last season, he could well cause an upset at 9/2 (Betfred)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles all as follows:
Sky Lantern / Spirit of Shankly @ 7.31 with Bet365, Totesport, Stan James & Betfred
Sky Lantern / Benefit Cut @ 17.88 with Totesport & Betfred
Elusive Kate / Spirit of Shankly @ 9.00 with Bet365
Elusive Kate / Benefit Cut @ 19.25 with Totesport & Betfred