Stat of the Day, 28th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2013

My woeful week continued yesterday with Royal Peculier running out of steam and struggling under the burden of carrying 10 stone. He ran well enough until headed 2 furlongs from home, but he’d already run his race and had nothing left to offer.

Once headed, he weakened considerably and couldn’t even hang on to 3rd place in the closing stages, finally coming home 4th at 11/2 having drifted from our 4/1 BOG. The official margin of his defeat was 4.75 lengths.

Slightly bruised, but undeterred, it’s the same venue today for another late show in the…

9.00 Wolverhampton

Despite yesterday’s losing bet, the stats are still strong concerning these horses turned out within a month of a return to winning ways.

To briefly recap: 3 or more successive unplaced finishes followed by a win and then turned back out within 30 days on the All-Weather.

This year the figures from those criteria read as 45 winners from 153 with that strike rate of 29.4% producing level stakes profits of 49.99pts or 32.67% of stakes, based on all qualifiers priced between evens and 6/1.

There is just the one qualifier today: Living The Life, a 3yr old filly who showed some promise in her 4 maiden outings (finishes of 4221) before failing to make the frame in any of her first four attempts at handicap level (4658). As a result, her handicap mark dropped to just 70 for her latest run, where she took full advantage to score at Leicester, winning by a good 6 lengths yet was easing down considerably towards the finish.

That race only took place on Monday (5 days ago) which brings me to another stat that will support today’s selection.

In the last three years, fillies turned back out in lower grade events within 5 days of a win did particularly well. The criteria here are as follows: fillies, running in Classes 4 to 7, not National Hunt races and won last time out which was in the last five days.

That set of specific instructions when also applied to horses priced between evens and 6/1 has thrown up 45 winners from 122 races, a strike rate of 36.9% and achieved profits of 65.3pts, a return of 53.52% of stakes.

Despite absolutely scooting home last time out, Living The Life isn’t penalised for that win, as it came in an apprentices’ handicap event, meaning she can turn back out off the same mark of 70 and with Monday’s jockey John Lawson on board again, his ability to claim a further 7lbs should help the cause that little bit more.

If she comes here in the same mood as Monday she’ll certainly be hard to catch over a trip where her record reads 411 and she is highly likely to be sent off as favourite.

I should also add that trainer Jamie Osborne’s fillies tend to run very well here too, a claim backed up by the 14 winners from the 49 fillies he has sent here in the last 4 years. The impressive 28.6% strike rate giving rise to level stakes profits of some 61.8pts, an eye-catching 126% of stakes.

As of 1.30 am, the best price on offer for our 1pt win bet on Living The Life was the 9/4 BOG at bet365, but the market hadn’t been fully formed at that time. I’m taking that 9/4, because I think it will shorten, so please be sure to…

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