Double Dutch, 1st October 2013
Just as happened last week, I was foiled in my bid for three consecutive successes (is it double treble or treble double?).
In fairness, though, I wasn’t even close to landing a blow yesterday. I generally bag at least a winner from the four horses picked, but a second and two thirds was as good as it got.
Manatee Bay was third in the opener, but he was a good 2 lengths behind the unexpected 12/1 winner Fol Hollow. Our mount may well have been held up too long, as he finished strongly without actually challenging. Hills of Dakota was disappointing back in 6th.
As for the second race, I got both selections in the frame and the SPs were the same as our morning prices and I was correct in suggesting that Train Hard was most likely to come second. Those were the positives! Unfortunately Dumbfounded was third, not first, a short head and closing in on Train Hard in second.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Manatee Bay : 3rd at 2/1
Hills of Dakota: unplaced at 4/1 (6th)
Train Hard: 2nd at 4/1
Dumbfounded: 3rd at 5/2
Trial to date:
24 winning selections from 95 = 25.26%
6 winning doubles in 26 days = 23.08%
P/L : -14.69pts (-29.09% ROI)
Hurdle action all the way today starting with the…
Where my selection of Bombadero might initially make you think I’ve lost the plot. This is a horse with a 0/17 record on Flat/AW and has one win and one second place to his name from his 13 NH starts . So he’s 1/30 and since his only victory 48 weeks ago his form reads 000086!
However, that 6th place run last time out was not only his best effort for almost a year, it was also his first run for his new trainer Richard Newland, who will no doubt expect further improvement today. This race also represents a significant drop in class and the fact that he carries just 10-12 is likely to prove a key factor, as is the booking of Tony McCoy today. This race shouldn’t take much winning and the 2/1 BOG available from Bet365 might look quite long if the expected money comes in later.
If, however, Bombadero bombed out (sorry!), then expect Wayward Glance to be waiting in the wings to seize the opportunity as he also drops down a grade. He’s ultra consistent, if not spectacular but has already won three of his 12 NH races with five places to boot. In fact, he has only failed to make the first three home in two of those 12 races (532122127331). Speed between the hurdles won’t be an issue either, as he has a win and a second place over 1m6f on the flat to his name.
Wayward Glance shouldn’t be found wanting for stamina either, as his best flat runs were on Good to Soft ground and he stays 3m2f! I think that he represents an ideal Plan B at 4/1 BOG with Coral.
They say great minds think alike, and both Matt (via his shortlist) and myself have minds (not sure about the greatness, though! :D) and we’re thinking alike in being happy to go with Ben Cee Pee M here, who is currently available at a best BOG price of 11/8 with BetVictor.
He comes here in excellent form and seeking a hat trick of course victories after completing a 9-day double on 5th of September. He’s had a bit of a rest (26 days) and despite being raised 10lbs for his recent exertions, definitely looks the one to beat, having already accounted for two of his rivals recently, whilst the others are usually seen in maiden events.
Such is the level of his expected dominance, that the main threat is likely to come from Western Prize, who has only run modestly in three maiden hurdles to date, but does have decent speed on the flat, where he has three wins and a place from 10 outings. That place was a runner-up berth in an Ascot Class 2 Handicap, so there’s certainly some ability to this one.
He looks lightly treated at 102 for his handicap debut and if the hurdles don’t pose too much of an issue and he can be kept handy, he could well take this on the run-in, making light of Stan James’ offer of 4/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bombadero / Ben Cee Pee M @ 6.96 with BetVictor
Bombadero / Western Prize @ 13.75 with Stan James
Wayward Glance /Ben Cee Pee M @ 11.90 with Stan James, Coral and BetVictor
Wayward Glance / Western Prize @ 25.00 with Stan James