Trainer Stats: 1st October 2013

Cheer up Nigel – Your Horses Are Winning!

Andy Newton’s got 3 NH yards and 3 flat stables to look out for this week……

JEREMY NOSEDA (3 winners from his last 6 runners, 50% strike-rate): With 38 winners for the season the Jeremy Noseda team are now just 9 shy of their 2012 tally, but might be hard pressed to get their best ever total of 62 (2011). They’ve been firing in the winners around the 20% mark this term, while a nice 58% of their 193 runners (to date) have finished fourth or better. Of their 38 winners a staggering 30 have been with their 3 year-olds, but they are doing ok with their juveniles too – 3 winners, but 11 of their 19 youngsters have been placed in the top 4. Plenty of entries on the horizon, while of the four AW tracks look for any they run at Wolverhampton, Lingfield or Southwell in particular. On the turf they do very well at courses like Beverley, Brighton and Ayr.

JAMES TATE (4 winners from his last 12 runners, 33% strike-rate): Only been going since 2011, but following on from their 21 winners last year they’ve already smashed that with 52 – and counting. Neil Callan gets the bulk of their rides, while they have been backed by leading owner Saeed Manana, which, of course, helps bundles. They are operating around a 21% strike-rate at present, while things are looking rosy for the future too with a massive 24 juvenile winners. Looking at their track stats they do very well with their runners at Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Chester, Epsom, Leicester, Haydock and Redcar – while on the AW look for horses they run at Southwell (35%) and Wolverhampton (23%). In contrast, Lingfield (9%) and Kempton (3%) runners might be best overlooked.

SIR MARK PRESCOTT (4 winners from his last 10 runners, 40% strike-rate): Jockey Luke Morris has been on all their recent winners and is now the stable’s main pilot. They are a yard that tend to fire in winners in spells, so now could be a good time to get involved, while the fact they normally get 50+ winners in a season, and they are currently on 37, then there should be a lot more to come. Of their 163 runners this season 106 (65%) have finished fourth or better. So far in 2013 they’ve sent out 8 juvenile winners, but it could pay to know 27 of their 37 winners in 2013 have been with their 3 year-olds. Alcaeus and Man From Seville could be horses to follow in the coming weeks – they look typical Prescott types that will build up a sequence.

CHARLIE LONGSDON (3 winners from his last 5 runners, 60% strike-rate): The NH season is starting to hot up and in the coming month we can expect that to increase further. With that in mind it seems the Charlie Longsdon-trained horses are fit and ready – a Market Rasen treble last week backs that up. Jockey Noel Fehily is their main man in the saddle, but they do use the promising Kielan Woods a fair bit too. This puts them on 19 winners for the season and considering they totalled 54 in 2012-13 then their best yet (69, 2011-12) looks beatable. As the season moves on pay special attention to anything they send to Bangor, Market Rasen, Musselburgh, Plumpton, Sandown, Southwell and Wetherby – all track they do very well at – especially note any chasers they send to Southwell as they’ve a 42% strike-rate over the bigger obstacles there!

GORDON ELLIOT (4 winners from his last 8 runners, 50% strike-rate): The former Grand National-winning jockey is another of the NH yards that have started the season well – but, to be fair, they always seem to. They are also having the odd runner on the flat, and are actually 3 winners from their last 4 on the level! Being based in Ireland then don’t forget to keep an eye on anything over there – they are currently on 21 winners, with 62 (2010-11) being their best Irish finish yet. Their UK stats for 2013-14 are currently 13 winners from 36 runners (36%), and will be certain to better last terms 17 – 36 was their best yet in 2009-10. Of the UK tracks they do very well at Ffos Las, Musselburgh, Perth, Southwell and Uttoxeter.

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES (5 winners from his last 17 runners, 29% strike-rate): They are another yard that when they are hot – they’re hot! Rather than a steady flow of winners they tend to have spells through the season of a lot of winners, so it can pay to notice when these purple patches start. Son Sam is betting better by the year and they’ve plenty to look forward to this season, especially with horses like The New One, last season’s Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. It may surprise some to know that they are yet to break 100 winners in a NH season, so with 21 already I’m sure that will be a firm target – 97 was their best yet in 2010-11. Tracks to look for runners at are Hexham, Cartmel, Perth, Plumpton, Newton Abbot and Uttoxeter.

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