Stat of the Day, 5th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2013

I’m still not myself this morning, hence me being a little later than usual, but yesterday’s excellent 4/1 winner cheered me up no end.

We’re off to HQ today for the…

2.55 Newmarket

Where I’ve backed Luca Cumani’s Validus at 7/2 BOG with William Hill.

Validus comes here for this Class 2 encounter for a drop in grade following his recent outing at Listed class. Luca Cumani has a good record in recent years with horses dropping in class.

In the last three years, he has saddled up 35 winners from the 129 horses dropping down in class, that’s a strike rate of 27.13% for profits of 36.26pts or 28.11% of stakes.

Those figures represent a healthy return from blind backing, but if we impose an odds restriction and only back those priced between evens and 6/1, the figures improve further to 25/75 (33.33%) for 32.17pts (+42.9% ROI) profit.

And the lower down the odds we go, the greater strike rate. At a 4/1 odds cap, there were 19 winners from 48 (39.6% SR) for 18pts (+37.5% ROI) profit and so on. I’m sure you get the picture! 😀

Validus is currently available as high as 7/2 BOG, but also already as low as 11/4 in places, suggesting to me that he’ll go off as favourite today. That doesn’t worry me at all, though as favourites in handicaps on Newmarket’s Rowley course tend to fare very well.

In the last two years 25 of 88 favourites have won here, a strike rate of 28.4% producing level stakes profits of 35.24%, equivalent to 40% of stakes.

With odds restrictions of 13/8 to 6/1, those figures become 23/80 (28.75%) for 24.6pts (+30.76%) and whilst the ROI does drop the lower don the odds you go, the record at 4/1 and under is still impressive at 17 winners from 52 (32.7%) for 13.1 pts (+25.2% ROI) profit.

Validus should fit the bill on both sets of stats today and the 7/2 BOG from Hills looks decent value to me. BetVictor and Coral are offering the same, but I don’t how long it will last, so please…

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