Double Dutch, 6th October 2013
A bittersweet kind of day yesterday, race 1 went exactly as I imagined it with both of our selections finishing in the first two and I even called the order correctly for a 5.2/1 exacta for those that way inclined.
Unfortunately, my strongest fancy of the day’s four picks, Let Me In, was a non-runner. This elevated 2nd choice Pour La Victoire to the role of favourite, but a disappointing 5th of 8 runners was the best we got there.
No double landed, but the non-runner meant a 0.5pt stake on Erroneous at 2/1 tempered the damage to just a half point loss on the day and keeps us still not too far from that elusive break-even point.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Erroneous: won at 2/1 (SP 11/8)
Alisios: 2nd at 3/1
(Incidentally, the Exacta paid £6.20)
Let Me In: non-runner
Pour La Victoire: unplaced
Trial to date:
29 winning selections from 110 = 26.36%
8 winning doubles in 31 days = 25.81%
P/L : -10.72pts (-17.72% ROI)
Hobson’s Choice today, with no flat (Turf or A/W) action anywhere, so it’s a jumping we must go…
When last seen, Milord was an excellent 4th place in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and if he comes here in anything like decent shape, a Class 5 maiden hurdle should be well beneath him. I can only imagine that the doubts surrounding a comeback after a near 7 month break are the reasons why he’s available as long as 7/4 (BetVictor) for this one. As this is a maiden, there’s precious little form to work on, but surely a place in a prestigious Group 3 contest at Cheltenham ensures he holds the aces, if he’s not too rusty?
The only serious challenger on the horizon for me, must be Ballyalton, currently a 5/2 shot with Stan James. He won both of his bumpers, before finishing second on his hurdling debut at Southwell, but that too was almost 11 months ago! At least, both horses will come here fresh and Ballyalton’s trainer, Ian Williams generally does well in the month of October.
Is another Class 5 Hurdle (wow Chris, you’re really spoiling us with these quality races! :D) where Sendiym looks head and shoulders above the rest. Two wins and two places from his last six starts including a very easy win off a mark of 79 on Tuesday at Sedgefield over fences. He comes back hurdling today off the same mark and as long as he adapts to the hurdles quickly enough, he should take this with ease.
The way he scooted clear on Tuesday suggests he’ll be unfazed by the step up in trip, as he’s already performed well in the past in races just half a furlong shorter and the 2/1 on offer from Stan James looks generous.
In a race lacking both depth and quality, the only alternative for me is Mister Mistopheles, who was only beaten by a short head last time out and the way he stayed on that day suggests he’ll get this trip without a problem and looks an ideal backup at 4/1 with Coral.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Milord / Sendiym @ 7.55 with Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, William Hill
Milord / Mister Mistopheles @ 13.10 with BetVictor and Ladbrokes
Ballyalton / Sendiym @ 10.50 with Stan James
Ballyalton / Mister Mistopheles @ 17.50 with BetVictor