Stat of the Day, 6th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2013

A tough battle yesterday with less than three parts of a length separating the first three home and we had to settle for being the meat in the sandwich, as Validus was headed late on and finished 2nd, a half-length behind the winner, Mabait, who was carrying a stone less than our runner.

Validus proved a good pick for you traders, though, as we got on at 7/2 and he was sent off at 3/1 for a small arb, but more tellingly, he hit 1.34 in running for those quick enough to get out and secure a result equivalent to a 23/10 winner.

Hurdle action in Staffordshire today in the…

Your first 30 days for just £1

5.05 Uttoxeter

Where I’m looking for 5/2 shot Hail Tiberius to score for the second time inside five days, following a bit of a resurgence.

As you know, I’m keen on backing horses that won last time out and are turned out fairly quickly afterwards. I’ve put a few horses up for SotD from my “Back to Form” micro system, which looks for horses running with 30 days of their last run, which had to be a winning one, of course. This comes with a proviso that the horse had to have been unplaced in at least three consecutive runs before the win.

Hail Tiberius certainly fits that mould: a form line over hurdles of 9P6720001 is the kind of thing I look for. His three zeroes actually represent the following: 13th of 14 (beaten by 89l), 10/14 (76l) and 11/1 (43l) before winning at Chepstow on Tuesday by 2.5 lengths off the same mark of 83 as his previous race!

Now, horses who qualify for this micro system, which has a 6/1 odds cap, have won 48 of 158 races this year alone, a strike rate of 30.4% generating level stakes profits of 39.4pts or 24.9% of stakes.

Those are based on running within 30 days of the return to form, of course. With a 5-day limit on their return, the figures are 3 from 6 for 5.42pts.

In fact, hurdlers who won last time out and run again within 5 days have historically done well at the sharp end of the market. Since 2009, such horses turned back out at odds below 7/2 have won 93 of 153 races, a fantastic 48.2% strike rate and the level stakes profits of 33.85pts (+17.54% ROI) are well worth having.

Hail Tiberius took advantage of a mark that had dropped from 103 to 83 to score last time out and running off just 85 today looks set to repeat the feat the feat in a race that looks more like a seller than a Class 5 Handicap, if truth be told.

As I said at the top of the piece Hail Tiberius is a 5/2 shot and this BOG price is pretty widely available. I’ve gone with BetVictor today, but you really should…

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.05 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today’s racecard!


Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *