Double Dutch, 7th October 2013
Ballyalton was leading Milord home for another of 1-2 finishes we’ve had recently, until Milord crashed through the 3rd hurdle from home and ended up in a heap on the floor, leaving Ballyalton with an easy run in and win at an SP of 2/1.
The fact we’d got at 5/2 meant we’d a handy 1.75pts now staked on our fancied runners at Kelso, but Mister Mistopheles was disappointing back in 6th place and Sendiym was reeled in with less than 20 yards to go by fast-finishing 28/1 shot Honourable Gent.
Great news for those of you on the winner, but it meant we were a cricket pitch shy of a 9.5/1 double which would have reduced by current losses by another 44%!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Ballyalton: won at 5/2 (SP 2/1)
Sendiym: 2nd at 2/1
Mister Mistopheles: unplaced
Trial to date:
30 winning selections from 114 = 26.32%
8 winning doubles in 32 days = 25.00%
P/L : -12.72pts (-20.35% ROI)
As I look out of window here onto the surrounding farmland, I can see a few horses running round the fields and I wonder if their own private races aren’t as good a quality as what’s on offer elsewhere today.
Monday’s are generally poor fayre, but flat racing at the scrag end of the season in October certainly takes the biscuit.
That said, each of today’s 23 races will have a winner, so let’s try to find a couple, starting in the…
Elusive Guest, Oasis Fantasy and Throne Room all hold entries for next year’s Derby and the three look a cut above the rest of the field here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish as the first three home, so I have to make sure I don’t discard the winner!
Throne Room (6/4 with Stan James) is my pick here, he’s a half-brother to Nathaniel and big things are likely to be expected of him, but he has to start somewhere. He was 4th in a decent enough maiden at Yarmouth on debut almost 3 weeks ago and looked like he needed a longer trip, so the extra furlong and a half should fit the bill nicely.
Of the other two, I’m going to side with Oasis Fantasy, who also has the benefit of recent race experience when beaten by less than 2 lengths on debut and is an ideal back-up at 9/2 (BetVictor).
(Elusive Guest will win races, but hopefully not this one! :D)
This should all revolve around the pair of three-year olds at the head of the market, where I fancy Train Hard (5/2 Boylesports) to get the better of Inherited (also 5/2, but with Paddy Power). They have the same recent form of 332, but Train Hard is more lightly raced and subsequently less exposed at this level.
Train Hard comes here after a narrow defeat at Bath a week ago, when he was he headed 100yds from the end of a 13f race, the drop back to 12f should be critical for him here today, whilst Inherited has been improving with each run and is knocking on the door of his first win. The booking of Ryan Moore is a definite boost to his chances here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Throne Room / Train Hard @ 8.13 with Stan James
Throne Room / Inherited @ 8.75 with Stan James
Oasis Fantasy / Train Hard @ 17.88 with Bet365, BetVictor and Coral
Oasis Fantasy / Inherited @ 19.25 with William Hill