Stat of the Day, 8th October 2013
Melvin The Grate ran a decent enough race yesterday and although he maintained October’s 100% place strike rate (it now reads 221213), his third place in a tight 4-way battle for the lead wasn’t enough to swell our coffers further.
We did however get the value price with the 9/2 early odds about a 3/1 favourite and that is the long-term way of beating the bookies.
There’s precious little form to go off for today’s selected race, but I do have an absolute stack of stats to support today’s runner in the…
Which is a Class 4 Fillies’ Maiden for 2 yr olds over 7 furlongs. Three of the eleven runners have already been seen a total of four times in the past and none has exactly covered themselves in glory, whilst the other eight runners (including ours!) are making their racecourse debut today.
I’ve backed Arabian Beauty at 4/1 with William Hill, a price that probably won’t last long either.
Arabian Beauty is a half-sister to dual group 1 winner Rio de la Plata and she is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and will be ridden by Silvestre de Sousa on her first outing. As I said, no form to work with, but I’ve lots of numbers to throw at you! Finding a fitting starting point is the hardest part here.
Let’s first look at Saeed Bin Suroor’s record in 2yo Fillies’ Maidens since 2009. If we impose a general odds cap of 8/1 (we rarely go over 8’s for SotD!) we see that he has trained 39 winners from 112 runners, a strike rate of 34.8% and the profits return of 37.4pts (+33.4% ROI) would be enough to make this runner a selection anyway.
However, let’s also dig further into the yard’s success with 2 yr olds on debut:
From 2011 to 2013: 34 winners from 141 at all odds = 24.1% strike rate and 29.7pts level stakes profit = 21.1% ROI.
From those 141 winners, a couple of simple odds filters reduces the number of runners, but increases both the strike rate and the profitability as follows:
13/8 to 6/1 only: 22/76 = 28.9% SR for 26.4pts = 34.8% ROI
13/8 to 4/1 only: 16/47 = 34% SR and profits of 16.5pts = 35.1% ROI
But, I’m not done there! Since 2009, Saeed Bin Suroor has a 30% strike rate in all maiden races (212 winners from 707) for reasonable profits of 99pts or 14% of stakes.
When a simple odds filter of only taking those priced between evens and 9/2, we arrive at figures of 142 winners from 396 (35.9% SR) for profits of 118.4pts (+29.9% ROI)
And we can break those 396 runners down as follows:
2 yr olds only: 96/256 = 37.5% SR : profit of 95.2pts = 37.2% ROI
Fillies only: 43/120 = 35.8% SR : profit of 41.8pts or 34.8% of stakes invested
2 yr old fillies: 29/78 = 37.2% SR for 33pts (+42.3% ROI) profit.
And finally (!) I should also add that today’s jockey Silvestre de Sousa has a fantastic record on 2yr olds running in races of today’s 7 furlongs or less.
Since 2008, he has won on board 99 of the 312 such runners priced at 6/1 or under, strike rate of 31.7% which has produced level stakes profits of 75.3pts, an ROI of 24.1%, whilst the stats for 2013 alone are 22/64 (34.4% SR) for 19pts (+29.7% ROI) profit.
I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Arabian Beauty at 4/1 with William Hill, so why not join me? Alternatively, you can always…
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Here is today’s racecard!