Stat of the Day, 8th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2013

Melvin The Grate ran a decent enough race yesterday and although he maintained October’s 100% place strike rate (it now reads 221213), his third place in a tight 4-way battle for the lead wasn’t enough to swell our coffers further.

We did however get the value price with the 9/2 early odds about a 3/1 favourite and that is the long-term way of beating the bookies.

There’s precious little form to go off for today’s selected race, but I do have an absolute stack of stats to support today’s runner in the…

2.40 Leicester

Which is a Class 4 Fillies’ Maiden for 2 yr olds over 7 furlongs. Three of the eleven runners have already been seen a total of four times in the past and none has exactly covered themselves in glory, whilst the other eight runners (including ours!) are making their racecourse debut today.

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I’ve backed Arabian Beauty at 4/1 with William Hill, a price that probably won’t last long either.

Arabian Beauty is a half-sister to dual group 1 winner Rio de la Plata and she is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and will be ridden by Silvestre de Sousa on her first outing. As I said, no form to work with, but I’ve lots of numbers to throw at you! Finding a fitting starting point is the hardest part here.

Let’s first look at Saeed Bin Suroor’s record in 2yo Fillies’ Maidens since 2009. If we impose a general odds cap of 8/1 (we rarely go over 8’s for SotD!) we see that he has trained 39 winners from 112 runners, a strike rate of 34.8% and the profits return of 37.4pts (+33.4% ROI) would be enough to make this runner a selection anyway.

However, let’s also dig further into the yard’s success with 2 yr olds on debut:
From 2011 to 2013: 34 winners from 141 at all odds = 24.1% strike rate and 29.7pts level stakes profit = 21.1% ROI.

From those 141 winners, a couple of simple odds filters reduces the number of runners, but increases both the strike rate and the profitability as follows:
13/8 to 6/1 only: 22/76 = 28.9% SR for 26.4pts = 34.8% ROI
13/8 to 4/1 only: 16/47 = 34% SR and profits of 16.5pts = 35.1% ROI

But, I’m not done there! Since 2009, Saeed Bin Suroor has a 30% strike rate in all maiden races (212 winners from 707) for reasonable profits of 99pts or 14% of stakes.

When a simple odds filter of only taking those priced between evens and 9/2, we arrive at figures of 142 winners from 396 (35.9% SR) for profits of 118.4pts (+29.9% ROI)

And we can break those 396 runners down as follows:
2 yr olds only: 96/256 = 37.5% SR : profit of 95.2pts = 37.2% ROI
Fillies only: 43/120 = 35.8% SR : profit of 41.8pts or 34.8% of stakes invested
2 yr old fillies: 29/78 = 37.2% SR for 33pts (+42.3% ROI) profit.

And finally (!) I should also add that today’s jockey Silvestre de Sousa has a fantastic record on 2yr olds running in races of today’s 7 furlongs or less.

Since 2008, he has won on board 99 of the 312 such runners priced at 6/1 or under, strike rate of 31.7% which has produced level stakes profits of 75.3pts, an ROI of 24.1%, whilst the stats for 2013 alone are 22/64 (34.4% SR) for 19pts (+29.7% ROI) profit.

I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Arabian Beauty at 4/1 with William Hill, so why not join me? Alternatively, you can always…

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.40 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today’s racecard!


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