Double Dutch, 9th October 2013
After missing out on an 18.25/1 double on Monday, we were not to be denied yesterday as both of our “second picks” brought home the bacon and not only did they dramatically improve our P/L figures, they reinforced the Geegeez mantra about not backing horses at SP.
Our two winners, Desert Society and Ventura Quest came home at 11/4 and 15/8 respectively, which would represent a double at 9.78/1.
Now I wouldn’t turn my nose up at that, don’t get me wrong, but I advised you to take the BOG odds from William Hill which paid out at 19/1 yesterday. So, the same bet for the same stake paid 94% above SP by taking the early BOG prices.
Anyway lecture over! We had another 1-2 in race 2 which generated a small 5.1/1 exacta and Caridadi lost second place in the shadow of the post in the preceding race to deny any hopes of a forecast double.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Desert Society: won at 9/2 (SP 11/4)
Caridadi: 3rd at 9/4
Ventura Quest: won at 4/1 (SP 15/8)
King of Macedon: 2nd at 11/8
(The Exacta paid £6.10 here to a £1 stake!)
Trial to date:
33 winning selections from 122 = 27.05%
9 winning doubles in 34 days = 26.47%
P/L : -6.72pts (-10.11% ROI)
A decent result today could well see us in positive territory for the first time. Hopefully that will start in the…
This really should be a shoot out between the two at the head of the market, Kathleen Frances and The Road Ahead.
Kathleen Frances has been found lacking for pace in races 4 and 5 furlongs shorter than today and this extra distance should suit her much better here. yet despite not winning races, she’s has shown good levels of consistency, finishing second in two of her last four races.Today is her first run for her new trainer and it is hoped she’ll go well at odds of 11/4 (Stan James) here.
The Road Ahead will look to build upon her runner-up berth on her hurdling debut at Uttoxeter last time after four promising bumper outings with finishes of 2421. She stepped up in trip to 2m 4.5f for her hurdles debut and seemed to get the trip pretty well, despite being well beaten by the favourite Letsby Avenue. She was just ahead of Billfromthebar that day and whilst she has been resting, Billfromthebar has won each of his three subsequent races.
If The Road Ahead can follow that kind of form, a 9/4 bet with SportingBet might well pay dividends, giving us a shot at the…
Volume has caught the eye in both of her runs to date. She stayed on well on debut over 7f at Newmarket almost seven weeks to finish third at odds of 66/1. She was stepped up to a mile for her next run, where she won very easily by five lengths and stayed on yet again. She steps up in trip and class again today and they must be the only reasons why she’s not odds on here. I struggle to see her getting beat and I’d expect her to shorten from her current 13/8 price on offer from Stan James.
If, however, she doesn’t handle the extra furlong today, I’m sure that Gold Trail will be waiting in the wings to pounce. He cost Godolphin 280,000 Euros and is a half-brother to Zafisio, a Group 1 winner over a mile and has Group 3 wins over a mile and also over 10 furlongs. He stayed on well to win at Haydock last time out (1 mile) despite showing plenty of greenness that day. He’s expected to come on further for that run and could push Volume all the way today at BetVictor’s decent price of 7/2
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
The Road Ahead / Volume @ 8.52 SportingBet (non-BOG) or 7.89 BOG with Stan James
The Road Ahead / Gold Trail @ 13.50 with BetVictor
Kathleen Frances / Volume @ 9.86 with Stan James
Kathleen Frances / Gold Trail @ 16.24 with Stan James