Double Dutch, 11th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 11th October 2013

A day of disappointment yesterday, despite Billybuster making all in the opener to win a shade cosily, but the joy was tempered by the fall at the last by our second pick, Do The Bookies.

And then further bad news came in race 2 as both our selections were undone by Tamarkuz and the best we could manage was 2nd and 3rd in a 4-horse race: not good! So, no double landed and not even a consoltion prize of an Exacta.

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Billybuster: won at 2/1 (SP 13/8)
Do The Bookies: fell
———————————
Ehtedaam: 2nd at 6/4 (SP 11/8)
Snowboarder: 3rd at 11/10 (SP Evs)

Trial to date:

35 winning selections from 130 = 26.92%
9 winning doubles in 36 days = 25.00%

Stakes: 70.5pts
Returns: 59.78pts

P/L : -10.72pts (-15.21% ROI)

We could do with another winning day to arrest the recent slide and hopefully I’ve got just the right balance today…

5.00 Carlisle

Franciscan was a useful performer on the Flat for Luca Cumani before switching to hurdling, where he won on debut last time out. Having won three times over 1m4f, he’ll not be found wanting for ground speed and his presence should ensure a decent enough pace is maintained. He won at 4/9 at Bangor almost 7 weeks ago on his hurdles bow and although that race didn’t look particularly strong (just three ran!), the runner-up Saint Thomas is 2/2 since, including a 15 lengths victory also at Bangor 17 days later. Franciscan should improve for that first effort and is expected to take this one at 6/5 with BetVictor.

The consistent Sergeant Mattie is the likeliest challenger here and at 3/1 with Stan James might offer a little value. He won an Irish point to point before being sold for over £40,000 (so somebody rates him!) and has subsequently been placed in both his bumper outings to date. His yard is in great form (10 winners and 7 placed from 21 in the last fortnight) and his jockey is showing a 9.15pts level stakes profit this season.

8.10 Wolverhampton

A pretty poor looking maiden here, but the consistent (633432) Icon Dance holds the best of the form of those on show today and runs for a yard showing signs of a belated return to form. This Sixties Icon filly ran on well in defeat last time out and it is hoped that the step up in trip will be enough to shake that maiden tag. The market seems to agree, as she’s currently the favourite with the 11/8 on offer from BetVictor the best around.

Of the rest, I’d probably plump for Miguel Grau, who comes back from a lengthy break and runs his first race for Roger Varian, who is pretty good at getting rested horses to fire first time. This one was 4th to Tamarkuz (who won one of our DD races yesterday!) here over 7f in September 2012 in what was his best effort to date and the application of blinkers is expected to help him in what really is a poor contest. It shouldn’t take much winning and at 9/4 (Stan James), Miguel Grau is my plan B.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Franciscan / Icon Dance @ 5.23 with BetVictor
Franciscan / Miguel Grau @ 6.60 with BetVictor
Sergeant Mattie / Icon Dance @ 9.00 with Stan James
Sergeant Mattie / Miguel Grau @ 13.00 with Stan James