Stat of the Day, 11th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2013

I was only mildly irritated at having burned the midnight oil late into Thursday morning to provide you with a stack of compelling reasons to back Moorlands Jack and then he decided to make a hash of the first fence and dumped his rider rather unceremoniously to the turf.

So, no run at all for our money and another -1 enters my results list. Hurdling today and I’m more hopeful this one will at least complete the…

1.50 Newton Abbot

Charlie Longsdon’s horses are in fine fettle at present, 17 of his 21 runners in the last fortnight have made the frame with ten of them (47.62%) going on to win and he has a fair number of runners out today.

The one I’m interested in is his Scottish-sounding French recruit Harristown, formerly with Mme Christiane Head-Maarek (aka Criquette) who some of you may have heard of! 😀

Harristown makes his first start for Mr Longsdon today and his first in the UK, but you can guarantee he’ll have been well schooled in France prior to his departure and now runs his first race for a yard not only on top form but one with excellent results when running horses on their debut for the yard.

In the 2011/13 period, Charlie Longsdon has given a first/new start to 150 horses, of which a more than creditable 33 (22% SR) have gone on to win. Some decent priced winners amongst that lot have helped return profits of 186.9pts, or 124.6% of stakes. The record this year alone is 5/32 (15.6%) for +14.55pts (+45.2% ROI) : a more realistic, but still highly acceptable figure.

I said the stats were slightly skewed by some higher priced winners at odds we’d not normally take for SotD, so we really should look at the normal odds parameters we normally impose. So from the original subset of 150 runners, we have…

8/1 odds cap : 26 winners from 100 = 26% SR. Profit of 25.45pts = 25.45% ROI. (3/19 this year)
4/1 odds cap : 20 winners from 50 = 40% SR. Profit of 24.88pts = 49.76% ROI. (3/12 this year)

So, a 4/1 odds cap is most agreeable for us here and fits in with the average odds profile of an SotD selection. The last piece of the jigsaw is the booking of Kielan Woods to ride Harristown today. Not only does Kielan take 3lbs off today, which is sure to help, he’s also having a great season. Had you backed every one of his rides to a £10 stake this year, you’d already be over £498 better off at SP. Backing at BOG odds or Betfair SP could only increase this.

So with all the above in mind, I’m on Harristown at 100/30 with William hill, but this price is also available at Bet365 and BetVictor, so please…

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